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| What are the odds!; Calculations & Probabilities | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: 13th October 2014 - 06:54 PM (729 Views) | |
| Dune-rats | 15th October 2014 - 08:58 PM Post #16 |
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Clanrat
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Fellblade ties for intititive hits on 5and6, wounds on 2+, and there is a 4+ ward save that has to be rerolled on a success, and multiples to d6 wounds, 4 attacks. 47% chance to trade a warlord w/ fellblade for someone who costs more than five times the warlord... Worth. Oop 62% forgot the percentage of the warlord surviving. Edited by Dune-rats, 15th October 2014 - 09:03 PM.
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W/L/D Vs WoC 2/2/1 | |
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| Didimus | 20th October 2014 - 05:52 PM Post #17 |
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Stormvermin
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I found an error in my math. Here are the updated numbers for a Warlord w/ fellblade vs Nagash. This is assuming that both are un-injured at the start of combat. After 1 round of Combat:
Now, if you took a Bonebreaker Warlord (4 wounds), here are the numbers. After 1 round of Combat:
AND...he has swiftstride, so it is easier to get to Nagash! |
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| Rein bringer of the cheese | 21st October 2014 - 03:54 PM Post #18 |
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Warlord
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That is a rumour which is faulty! It started on the DakkaDakka forum and is based on pure lies! It is really tricky to test the probability of dice, you have to roll a significant number of times with the same die to test if it is statistical relevant. the solution is simple: Use the same dice for everything and you are fine! (if you are really sceptic then roll 1 set of dice, so the same as your opponent) PS: I tried rolling 6 dice over a 100 times (gw dice) and the outcome was very close to 16% for 1's, which does not support the statement of 21% |
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