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What are the odds!; Calculations & Probabilities
Topic Started: 13th October 2014 - 06:54 PM (729 Views)
Dune-rats
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Clanrat
Fellblade ties for intititive hits on 5and6, wounds on 2+, and there is a 4+ ward save that has to be rerolled on a success, and multiples to d6 wounds, 4 attacks.

47% chance to trade a warlord w/ fellblade for someone who costs more than five times the warlord... Worth. Oop 62% forgot the percentage of the warlord surviving.
Edited by Dune-rats, 15th October 2014 - 09:03 PM.
W/L/D
Vs WoC 2/2/1
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Didimus
Stormvermin
I found an error in my math. Here are the updated numbers for a Warlord w/ fellblade vs Nagash. This is assuming that both are un-injured at the start of combat.

After 1 round of Combat:
  • Both Survive: 15.82%
  • Both Die: 26.93%
  • Only the Warlord survives: 8.79%
  • Only Nagash survives: 48.45%

Now, if you took a Bonebreaker Warlord (4 wounds), here are the numbers.

After 1 round of Combat:
  • Both Survive: 35.17%
  • Both Die: 16.18%
  • Only the Warlord survives: 19.55%
  • Only Nagash survives: 29.10%

AND...he has swiftstride, so it is easier to get to Nagash!
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Rein bringer of the cheese
Warlord
Nurglitch IX
14th October 2014 - 10:24 PM
Dice roll simulators are problematic. If they work they just trend to the pure math, and as my buddy likes to point out - dice aren't fair. GW dice are actually the worst, studies show they roll 1s closer to 21% than the statistical expectation of 16.7%.
That is a rumour which is faulty! It started on the DakkaDakka forum and is based on pure lies!

It is really tricky to test the probability of dice, you have to roll a significant number of times with the same die to test if it is statistical relevant.

the solution is simple: Use the same dice for everything and you are fine! (if you are really sceptic then roll 1 set of dice, so the same as your opponent)

PS: I tried rolling 6 dice over a 100 times (gw dice) and the outcome was very close to 16% for 1's, which does not support the statement of 21%


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