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Curse of the Horned Rat- castable?; Or: Poly sucks at maths
Topic Started: 7th November 2009 - 06:50 PM (1,986 Views)
Polymphus
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Black and White again
Running the numbers on the 13th spell, I just realised how hilariously unlikely it is that one would cast it. The most dice a caster can use in the Skaven army is 5 (Grey seers). The spell is cast on a 25. That means that every single dice must roll a 5 or higher to successfully cast the spell. That's a 6.7% chance of casting when using 5 dice. The chance of miscast (13.8%) is more than twice the chance of a successful casting.

At 6.7% casting odds, if you cast it with 5 dice every turn of the game for two games, statistically you'll almost successfully cast it once. Even though it's hideously destructive, it just doesn't seem worth the risk.

Thoughts?

n.b. Poly sucks at maths. He's pretty sure he's got the numbers right, but double check them if you're unsure.
Polymphus is too busy and/or lazy to update song of the week this week. Stay tuned!
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Rubberchrist
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Shennanigans are out of the question!
The 13th spell is really more a spell of desperation.

I will probably only select it if I feel that I have 3 other freaking awesome spells.

It will probably only get cast in turn 4-5-6 of the game, and even then only when I'm pretty sure that I'm already losing.

THEN, I'll throw 7 dice at it, which will essentially mean 33% chance of IF, 33% miscast, some 10% regular success rate, and a real good chance of dying to my own token wounds.

I don't think that spell was ever meant to be more than a last ditch attempt to turn a game around. You know, a gamble, like everything else we do.
"Nurgle has got to be my favorite chaos god, fluff wise...
He's portrayed as this sort of jovial, jolly old guy who thinks that rotting apocolyptic plague is funny as hell... So basically he's a big ole fat bastard who thinks giving you a scorching case of the herp is a big laugh." ---Kadrium

7th Edition Fellblade Kills: 1 Steam Tank, 1 Warrior Priest, 4 Greatswords, 3 Treekin, 1 Chaos Sorcerer, 5 Chaos Warriors,
13th Spell Kills: 8 Chaos Chosen.
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Polymphus
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Black and White again
How can you use 7 dice? I haven't played WFB in a while, but isn't the formula y=x+1? (y power dice the caster can use, x is caster level). And Warpstone Tokens now have this little rider "...this does not allow users to rolls more dice than is normally allowed by their level." (p. 108)
Polymphus is too busy and/or lazy to update song of the week this week. Stay tuned!
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Rats&Goblins
Chieftain
Polymphus
Nov 7 2009, 08:05 PM
How can you use 7 dice? I haven't played WFB in a while, but isn't the formula y=x+1? (y power dice the caster can use, x is caster level). And Warpstone Tokens now have this little rider "...this does not allow users to rolls more dice than is normally allowed by their level." (p. 108)

Hm, in my book it reads

"These dice are added to the normal power dice, although this does allow users to roll more dice than is normally allowed by their level"


It's clumsy english, not sure if it was a typo, or changed at the last minute, or what... but that's what's there :)
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outbreak
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Warlord
IT will mainly get used when the enemy miscasts and rolls up the result where you get 1 free spell cast automatically.
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Rats&Goblins
Chieftain
Also as a possible deterrant - noone is going to burn that last scroll if they know you still have it up your sleeve :) Do all your other magic users first - then decide whether to try the big spell or carry on with regular magic with the Seer!
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Clanlord Trask
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Quiet, I'm plotting.

You can use more dice than your standard amount to cast it if you eat some warpstone tokens. Warpstone tokens give you extra casting dice, which is the whole point of the 13th Spell. You have to take that massive risk by eating warpstone to get it off.
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The Campaigner
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SkavenDan
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Doomwheel Fanatic
i'll always take it. The fear factor and the enemies miscast and roll a 5 unlucky for you curse of the horned rat of course you can TRY to dispell it with your power dice *Grin*
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Dr. Acula
Clanrat
Why use dangerous warpstone though when you could pay 5 points more (or 20 if you don't buy extra) and use a powerstone which will give you 2 additional dice?

I think the 13th is most likely, as said, to be used when you get a free spell - even with a lot of power dice people will have trouble dispelling a 25+ and with any luck they'll hopefully already have used some..
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SkavenDan
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Doomwheel Fanatic
Ok so you can use warpstone to get extra dice BUT do power stones let you exceed this limit? It doesn't say so in the description....
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Rats&Goblins
Chieftain
SkavenDan
Nov 8 2009, 12:34 AM
Ok so you can use warpstone to get extra dice BUT do power stones let you exceed this limit? It doesn't say so in the description....

Check the BRB p122... yes they do let you use more dice than normal.
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SkavenDan
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Doomwheel Fanatic
Thanks I thought so but couldn't find the text :)
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war-seer kindari
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Grey Seer
this is why my grey seer will probably be mandatorily given three power stones.

that and when the enemy miscast my clan recruits!

(skaven) (skaven) (skaven) (skaven)
Renewal is good
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Stripsteak
Warlord
keep in mind also that IF will cast the spell. it's possible to get it off with just 2 dice if you're feeling lucky...or desperate

with 7 dice it's nearly 50/50 but you're also up at a pretty high miscast rate 25-30% i think
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Technostorm of Skavenblight
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Warlock Engineer of Clan Gorerot
Whatever the casting value, it is still an awesome spell.
Turning their finest warriors into clanrats... heh...

I say, the chances are slim, but I never rely much on math-hammer.
"Let's see, if i attach this wire to the connector it should-"
KABOOM!
"Oops, wrong connector."
one of Technostorm's many failed experiments

clanrats... (skaven)YAY!!!

Technostorm is one of a very few skaven to be born with incredibly pale fur, but not be uber-epic. Like a lab rat
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