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Aliens-do you believe; Another useless psot by Mebob ^^
Topic Started: 25th June 2007 - 07:55 PM (766 Views)
brownmccoy
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Grey Seer
There is also one thing we must consider. How can we determine what another race needs to live? People say that life is only sustainable on Earth, but how can we tell what an Electite needs to live? Or an Eliptonian? (Yes I pulled random names out of my ass.)
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Skaskrit Venomclaw
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Because, as mutator mentioned, the laws of physics and the nature of the elements (periodic) makes it extremely likely that other lifeforms will also be carbon and hydrogen-based like us, and therefore reasonably similar in the conditions they'll need to thrive.

Aliens that are somewhat like terrestial life (not humans, mind) are more likely than ones that are completely different, I think.
"I have a post-Armageddon vision. We and all other large animals are gone. Rodents emerge as the ultimate post-human scavengers. They gnaw their way through New York, London and Tokyo... within 5 million years, a whole range of new species replace the ones we know. Herds of giant grazing rats are stalked by sabre-toothed predatory rats. Given enough time, will a species of intelligent, cultivated rats emerge?"

Richard Dawkins, The Ancestor's Tale
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Mutator
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scrivener
Jun 28 2007, 06:39 PM
Increasing the number of planets does not improve the odds, it merely allows the odds occurring more frequently.


Hello? And with the number of planets we may be talking about, the end result is...?
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Airtruck
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There are how many stars in the universe? Trillions. There are how many planets revolving around those stars? Even more than that. To think that life can only be possibe here on Earth (and what looks like Mars and Europa now, too!) is just completely ludicrous. Yes, I believe there is life on other planets, hopefully somewhere out there they are even posting on forums where people play with little toy soldiers and are asking the same question, but have they visited earth? This I doubt.

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scrivener
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Mutator
Jun 28 2007, 11:37 PM
scrivener
Jun 28 2007, 06:39 PM
Increasing the number of planets does not improve the odds, it merely allows the odds occurring more frequently.


Hello? And with the number of planets we may be talking about, the end result is...?

My original statement...
Quote:
 
But then, considering the size of the universe and how many planets and suns there are out there, I'm sure the odds could possibly be repeated at least 1 more time. The question is, what are the odds as well of all that happening in our time (or even within this millenia), what are the odds that it would be a lifeform that evolved into intelligent beings like us, and what are the odds that would they be capable of space travel? Then, not only would they be capable of space travel, they would want to travel.


Yes, the likelihood is high that other planets would similarly develop life. As I said, if the odds are a gazillion to one, but the number of planets are a gazillion squared.... but that is a generalization on determining the likelihood. That implies that we're basing the probabilities on planets that fulfill the necessary criteria. But then we also should take into consideration the odds of said planet undergoing the processes that lead to development of life: not just planetary conditions, but the processes (currently hypothised to be lightning, volcanic activity) that provided the catalyst, then the chemical reactions that would lead specifically to the macromolecules that will be the building blocks for organisms. To calculate the odds of these processes happening, we can no longer look at all planets in general, since these conditions are confined to specific planetary conditions, and we can't calculate the odds of Sea Biscuit winning a greyhound race.

Then, if we're talking about intelligent life, that narrows the odds further. Then, intelligent life within the same time frame as us, again it narrows the odds. Then, within intelligent life that develops the technology capable of space travel, then who want to travel, then who develop what is required to travel, then who come, not just into our section of the universe, or even our galaxy, but to our planet. The odds of that alone is like winning a lotto with as many balls as there are planets. Calculate all of those odds together, and you get the odds for being visited by aliens.
hannanibal
 
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"WHAT DO WE WANT!!??"
"A THINNISH, WATERY PAINT WITH A GREENER TINGE THAN AGRAX EARTHSHADE!!"
"WHEN DO WE WANT IT!?"
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Orcsbain
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In short yes!

The univirse is just so big that statisicly its impossible that we are alone in it.
Any body who says diferent is just a fool to themselves!

Weather we will ever meet another race is a different matter as the distances involved in them coming here (or us going there) are just mind blowing!


ttfn
If we arnt meant to eat animals , why are they made from meat?

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Mutator
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scrivener
Jun 29 2007, 12:21 PM
But then we also should take into consideration the odds of said planet undergoing the processes that lead to development of life: not just planetary conditions, but the processes (currently hypothised to be lightning, volcanic activity) that provided the catalyst, then the chemical reactions that would lead specifically to the macromolecules that will be the building blocks for organisms.

The Miller Hypothesis and volcanic activity hypotheses are only some of the versions by which life may develop. You didnt mention the Iron-Sulfur World, the Poly Aromatic Hydrocarbon World, the clay variant, the deep-crust variant etc etc. Many of these dont even require volcanism, weather or any of the other conditions we assume.

It seems that all that is really required is temperature, energy and, in most (but not all) cases, some kind of atmosphere. So long as the thermodynamics are right... the rest might follow in a series of real and 'false start' emergent events over a few billion years. Easy :P

Someone has calculated the odds of visitation by intelligent, technologically superior races and the number was surprisingly high. IIRC their basic process was to take what we think we know would be required, assign the odds, decrease the odds by an order of magnitude at every step (their 'error margin'), and then see what the final number was. Must see if I can track down the number somewhere...
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scrivener
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*toot*

You're right that those theories revolving around the iron-sulphur and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon stuff can catalyse themselves. I know too little about the polycyclic aromatherapy one, but I thought the iron-suphur theory still relies on hydrothermic vents in order to fix many of its holes, i.e. at least some "procedural" external element outside of the starting compositional conditions. I guess I still like the soup theory. :P

It'll be great if you could find that guy's calculation. I'd like to see the basis behind the decreasing odds.
hannanibal
 
*Angry mob assembles*

"WHAT DO WE WANT!!??"
"A THINNISH, WATERY PAINT WITH A GREENER TINGE THAN AGRAX EARTHSHADE!!"
"WHEN DO WE WANT IT!?"
"QUITE SOON PLEASE AS MY LAST POT IS RUNNING OUT!"
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Skaskrit Venomclaw
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How the hell would odds of visitation be high if we don't even know whether it's possible to travel between the stars in anything less than centuries of flight?

I recall some kind of calculation that said that if such interstellar travel was possible, earth would have been colonised by aliens long ago... you only need a civilisation a few hundred thousand years older who are expansionist. Their growth is exponential, so they soon colonise the entire galaxy.

Didn't happen. So either they aren't out there or they can't come here. I'm guessing the latter.
"I have a post-Armageddon vision. We and all other large animals are gone. Rodents emerge as the ultimate post-human scavengers. They gnaw their way through New York, London and Tokyo... within 5 million years, a whole range of new species replace the ones we know. Herds of giant grazing rats are stalked by sabre-toothed predatory rats. Given enough time, will a species of intelligent, cultivated rats emerge?"

Richard Dawkins, The Ancestor's Tale
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Mebob
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Quote:
 
Didn't happen. So either they aren't out there or they can't come here. I'm guessing the latter.

OR one of the many other possiblities, such as, there on they havnt reached Earth yet, their still expanding, cival unrest as caused a callaspe to their hold on the colonised parts of the galexy causing their expansion to come to a stand still as planets are revolting for independance, they are struggleing in a war agaisnt other aliens with the same ideas and capabilites, they have deemed this part of the galexy uninhabital so believe coming to this part of the universe would be nothing more than a waste of time.

theres a n umber m ore of reasons why they may not of reached earth yet, not jsut the two you mentioned.

Also, it seems not a single person ahs put "they do not exist" ^-^ whihc is interesting to say the least
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Skaskrit Venomclaw
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I said... a hundred thousands years ago.

That's enough time to overcome any and all imaginable problems and expand again. And the hundred thousand years was just an random number. If there's two species capable of space travelling, there's three. And four. And more. And they could have evolved millions of years ago too. Surely one would have colonised the galaxy by now? It only takes one successful species.
"I have a post-Armageddon vision. We and all other large animals are gone. Rodents emerge as the ultimate post-human scavengers. They gnaw their way through New York, London and Tokyo... within 5 million years, a whole range of new species replace the ones we know. Herds of giant grazing rats are stalked by sabre-toothed predatory rats. Given enough time, will a species of intelligent, cultivated rats emerge?"

Richard Dawkins, The Ancestor's Tale
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Mutator
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Retired fat dude

Skaskrit Venomclaw
Jul 3 2007, 05:07 AM
Surely one would have colonised the galaxy by now? It only takes one successful species.

Goa'uld? :P
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