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Mathematics, statistics and probability; RANT ALERT
Topic Started: 31st March 2006 - 07:44 AM (203 Views)
Madthing
Chieftain
Okay, just to make this clear for everyone before I start, this is a rant. This means that it doesn't necessarily make sense, be rational or be uncontroversial. In a nutshell, this is the naked expression of my anger and frustration at some people. If this offends you in any way, you should ignore it completely. This is NOT a flame directed at any specific member of the readership, although some readers may identify with what I may be ranting against, so do not regard this as an invitation to start a flame war.

Because this is a rant, insults may be used, although I'll try to avoid profanity.

Now, disclaimer aside, I'm going to get into the meat of my problem. My problem is the wilful ignorance of a certain segment of the Warhammer community regarding mathematics, and more specifically statistics and probability, the two most relevant branches of mathematics to Warhammer.

These people hate any mention of number crunching and actual calculations drive them nuts. They loudly proclaim that calculations ruin the game and that there is no point to them anyway. Their chief arguement of the irrelevance of mathematics is the incredibly asinine proclamation that "it's all down to the dice anyway, so maths doesn't matter".

Well, here's a message for those idiots: NO FREAKING DUH, MORONS.

OF COURSE it's all down to the dice, and that's EXACTLY WHY calculations are relevant. There's always the chance that the dice will screw you over, but with the help of calculations, you can minimise the probability of the dice kicking you in the balls. These calculations allow you to make INTELLIGENT decisions about what you are doing. What kind of idiot DOESN'T want to make intelligent decisions?

To make the best decisions, you want to have as much information as possible. Calculations are a valuable type of information, just like past experience and blind intuition, and are in my opinion more valuable than the other two. Working out whether something is worth it or not is just good sense, and yet some people are blindly and stupidly against it for no real reason.

Another thing that these people often claim: doing such things destroys the spirit of the game. They allege that this type of thinking leads to power gaming, min-maxing and cheese.

To avoid doing something just because taking it to the extremes is a bad thing is just stupid. Do you stop eating just because eating too much will make you fat and increase your chance of illness? Do you stop playing Warhammer just because you might end up beggaring yourself by spending too much money? Of course not! Just because some people do such things doesn't mean that everything they do is wrong. That's just a stupid and prejudicial view of the world, making everything a crime by association.

And in any case, who says that somebody who does make such calculations will necessarily come out with a cheesy, unbalanced or unfair list or style of play. Mathematics is merely a way of gathering information. It doesn't force a player to do anything. The player has to make the decision themselves. Just because they have worked out that Stormvermin aren't much of an improvement over Clanrats doesn't mean that they are suddenly unable to use them. It just means that they have a more realistic view of how Stormvermin will perform on the battlefield. They can choose to trade efficiency for preference and still take the Stormvermin. It's just that they do so knowing full well what the hell they are getting into. And if you think that's a bad thing, you're a wilfully ignorant idiot.

It's like these people see numbers and calculations and immediately think that it's bad, wrong and evil. This is just stupid on so many levels, but what gets to me the most is that they decide this without even thinking about it. They just don't like maths, and so assume that maths is a bad thing, without working out rationally whether it is or is not. But then, I suppose rationally working something out is beyond these people, simply because they don't like the process.

So these people, with all their brainless prejudices, then go around and try to force these on other people. If somebody has gone to the trouble of working out something or another and is then kind enough to share how they did this with other people, they go and castigate this person. Why? I don't really know, but my best guess is that their sensibilities are harmed. Boo hoo. This person has done nothing to harm other people, and is in fact attempting to enlighten others, but because these people refuse to acknowledge the validity of this person's mode of thought, they insult it without making any good arguements against it. And then they go around trying to make other people think like themselves by browbeating them into submission.

There are plenty of things that irritate me, but even though this way of thinking is one of them, at least I am attempting to make some reasonable arguements against it. I'm even trying to avoid making insults, although it might not be working.

I don't have a problem with people not using mathematics and calculations. If you made that choice knowing what you were doing, that's fine. But to just dismiss it out of hand, and then to try to force me to dismiss it just like they have, and to insult me if they can't force me, I just want to slam their head against a wall until there's nothing left.

Well, that's about it. I have to say, ranting anonymously is quite an effective method of reducing tension.
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Skaven Lord Vinshqueek
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Bunny ear says flop

Right, so if I sum things up, you're basically annoyed by the people whom have something against using maths and statistics in the process of picking your warhammer army and whom wish to force this stance on your style of gaming... You know what, I totally agree. Everyone has their own style of playing the game and to force your own style of playing on someone else is always a bad thing. I, for one, would hate to face someone with the exact same army and style of playing as I had (even though it would most likely create a very interesting battle).

On the use of maths and statistics in warhammer, yes... I'm a fond opposer too. I don't say it's a bad thing, just that I won't do it. I've faced people whom analysed a complete army with the use of statistics and propability, regarding everyone as stupid for picking a unit that came out of their calculations as a bad choice. Basically, that became the opposite of what you've just been ranting about and I've just got the same opinion about those kind of people... Well, though I'd rather hit them with a pogostick then beating them into a wall. Pogostick is easier to handle *cackles*...
If I pick my army, I do so through experience... I know what units will do good in my gaming style and won't even bother trying to calculate of 25 clanrats will statistically do better then 30. If they do so, then I've made a good choice and will do so in the future. Should they do worse, tough luck and we'll try again next time. I don't have anything against people who use statistics, only against those who do so in a WAY to serious manner. In the end, it's all just a game.

Greetz
In the Horned One we trust, all others we monitor.

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Skaven track record [W/D/L] @ 17th of August, 2014: BB 34/19/55; MH 9/2/6; WHF 17/8/30
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Skaskrit Venomclaw
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Ex-Councilrat

You know Madthing, whilst I agree with what you're saying I don't quite think this is a logical place to say it. You're preaching to the choir. Nobody on this site has ever said anything against the use of statistics, in fact everybody loved it when Mik calculated just what the probabilities of getting irresistable force or miscasts are depending on the number of dice you roll.

Me, I loved statistics back in highschool. The only subject I drank in, and it improved my game immensely. (Geometry, though... ugh)

Vinsh: I'd argue that the people you're playing against are simply wrong. A good grasp of statistics is an immense asset when playing warhammer, but you can't apply it to an entire army list.

Warhammer has so many variables, many of which can't be caught in a numerical value, that statistical calculations of a unit's "worth" or "power" are essentially meaningless. How much is a point of movement worth? And what if there's a lot of terrain? But what if you're facing an all-cavalry army? Is 25 clanrats better than 30 if you're facing Chaos? If you're facing Ogres? If you want to use the unit in the second battleline? On the flanks? If you're playing a small game? A large game?

Warhammer cannot be grasped using just statistics. To try and statistically determine the value of an army list is a fool's errant.

But that doesn't mean it's not very useful in specific situations. Is it better to cast this spell with 4 or 5 dice? Should I charge with my handweapons and get a better save, or with my spears and hope the fight lasts 2 or more rounds? Will my clanrats stand a decent chance against that spearelf unit? If I charge my gutter runners in that unit's rear, can I expect them to boost or lower my combat resolution score?

Those questions can be answered approximately if you're experienced, but they can be answered much more precisely if you do a few easy sums.
"I have a post-Armageddon vision. We and all other large animals are gone. Rodents emerge as the ultimate post-human scavengers. They gnaw their way through New York, London and Tokyo... within 5 million years, a whole range of new species replace the ones we know. Herds of giant grazing rats are stalked by sabre-toothed predatory rats. Given enough time, will a species of intelligent, cultivated rats emerge?"

Richard Dawkins, The Ancestor's Tale
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Bassik Dwarveripper
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I am dis-calculus(spelling?) meaning calculating dice results costs me as much mental effort as writing an epic poem.(I am serious!)

However, I have no prejuice ( :P ) against people who do it. Outsmarting your oponent is a part of the game, and this is just one of the countless ways to do it.
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