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| Trump's Electoral Math is Shrinking. | |
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| Topic Started: Aug 14 2016, 12:04 AM (232 Views) | |
| Punchwood | Aug 14 2016, 11:38 PM Post #16 |
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I think the map you were showing Seymour was a bit too kind to Clinton. Even the Clinton camp does not think Georgia and Arizona are in play right now. They are trying to get people out to vote but they aren't speeding any money in the states yet. I mean why there are polls showing Clinton head in both states there are also polls showing Trump ahead in those states. They are ultimately very red states and even with a nominee like Trump it's going to be hard for a Democrat to win them. I would also say that Democrats are being too confident that they are going to win this election. Anything could happen between now and election day that could flip the tide into Trump's favour. There is just too much at risk this election for Democrats to become over-confident and screw up. Trump should never have become the GOP's nominee he could no matter how small his chances still win the Precedency and that is something few want to see. |
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| Aexnidaral Seymour | Aug 14 2016, 11:51 PM Post #17 |
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Somebody's got to keep you entertained.
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I don't. If Trump is under-performing with college educated whites, women, and getting 1% of the black vote? GA's in play, even more so than AZ. Also, for the record, none of these maps are my current prognostications of exactly how I think the race is at this exact minute. That is in a different thread. The maps in this thread are based on something different: demographic modelling and statistics. If HRC wins by 15+% nationally, no one can argue that she'd take states like Kansas and South Carolina. It's not me being generous. It's simply what would happen.
The Clinton Campaign has bought ads for media markets in and around Arizona, as well as Georgia. They've also pumped about 15 million dollars into ad buys during the Olympics which will be seen everywhere in the US regardless of Media Market. Trump has spent 0.
Because... that's the nature of a close race? Polls will bounce between two candidates or have one candidate within a margin of error. For a Republican to be within the margin of error in AZ and GA is simply not good.
Yes. However, Clinton has spent far more dollars on campaign infrastructure-- things like voter targeting, outreach, and get out the vote.
Most Democrats aren't getting over-confident. Spending money on states that aren't usually in play isn't over-confidence. It's an investment. Over-confidence would be if Clinton and the DNC/DCCC/DSCC didn't spend money at all on things like ad buys, campaign offices, staffing, and the VAN. But they are. And they're working hard. Some voters may be over-confident, but the party isn't. Democrats know what a penchant they have for shooting themselves in the foot. Edited by Aexnidaral Seymour, Aug 14 2016, 11:56 PM.
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![]() ![]() ![]() Family, Resume, and Awards "... Aex, who is treated like the Europeian version of Nickelback by a lot of people here."
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| Punchwood | Aug 15 2016, 01:06 AM Post #18 |
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Seymour she is not going to win by 15% nationally and you are being far too kind to Clinton. Georgia and Arizona don't lean Dem they lean GOP. If Clinton was to win one of those states I'd be very impressed. And Dems are being over confident, Harry Reid has said not to become overconfident. Looked up "democrats overconfident" and you will see article after article saying that the Democrats are overconfident. Democrats keep talking about how Georgia, Arizona, Texas and so on are in play that election year and each year they are wrong. Yes the GOP's nominee makes things more competitive but just don't get too carried away. The most likely outcome as far as I can see it currently is Clinton with 347 votes and Trump with 191 votes. I just think you are being too over confident, yes the statistics and demographics in those states look good but how many of those voters turn out to vote? Typically minority turnout in those states is poor. I just don't think you can give Clinton Georgia or Arizona at the moment they should be battleground states at most. |
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| Moronist Decisions | Aug 15 2016, 01:37 AM Post #19 |
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I think that this is going to be an intriguing race. I think that GA and AZ will be closer than years before but I doubt both would go for Clinton. I note that there was a poll today from CBS/YouGov regarding Georgia that is -4 (that is, Trump is up 4). I do think the maps Aex showed are very very optimistic. I don't think the Dems (at least at the upper echelon) are being overconfident. I think GA and AZ are worth it because (a) it can yield a closer battle, especially given Trump's lack of a GOTV effort; and (b) in the longer run, not necessarily this election but future ones, I can see states like OH, IA and possibly PA leaning closer to the republican side, and instead NC/GA/AZ becoming more swing-y. I shall note that IA and GA, AZ are similar in polling numbers right now; this should say something. Texas is definitely not in play. Honestly, neither is KS despite that poll. |
Moronist Decisions ED EOB EIN ESH ESS![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Formerly: Attorney General, Associate Justice/PIP, World Assembly Delegate, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Minister of World Assembly Affairs, Senator | |
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| Mousebumples | Aug 15 2016, 01:38 AM Post #20 |
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If you give this mouse a cookie, she'll probably ask for some cheese.
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If you look up "Trump voters confident" you'll probably find article after article describing what you Googled. Isn't that the nature of how Google works? ![]() Also, Punch, I think you are taking possibilities that Aex outlined here as "his personal prediction," which is not the case. IF Clinton wins by 15% (doubtful, but within the realm of one-digit probability), then states like Georgia and Texas may be in play. I think Arizona is much more purple than you're giving it credit for - especially since there are a number of Hispanic citizens in that state (and Nevada) that will likely be motivated to show up and vote - even if Clinton isn't winning by 15% nationwide. I agree (and I suspect that Aex agrees) that you cannot give Clinton Georgia or Arizona at the moment. But depending on how the next 3 months go, they could both be states that the Democrats win. I'm trying to not get too excited (one way or another) about how polls are now will reflect in the election day results until probably mid-September. But, even then, things can change drastically on a dime. Remember 2008? Obama and McCain were relatively close (I think) ... and then the recession happened and McCain "suspended his campaign" as a publicity stunt, and ... whoops? |
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