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Trump's Electoral Math is Shrinking.
Topic Started: Aug 14 2016, 12:04 AM (226 Views)
Aexnidaral Seymour
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Somebody's got to keep you entertained.

Let's take a moment to step away from our dystopian reality where Donald Trump is actually the nominee for the Republican party. Instead, let's pretend that we're in an alternate universe where the Republicans nominated John Kasich, or Marco Rubio, or ... well, almost literally anyone else.

Here's what our electoral map would look like:

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Your "average" Republican could easily win the White House needing just 64 more electoral votes to win the Presidency through combinations of Nevada (6), Colorado (9), Iowa (6), Wisconsin (10), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), New Hampshire (4), Virginia (13), and Florida (29).

The path of least resistance for Republicans in an average election would be, likely, by taking Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Colorado and New Hampshire totaling 66 electoral votes-- bringing their entire electoral tally to 272.

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This map should look familiar to anyone over 26. It's (essentially) George Bush's path to victory, With the exception of Iowa who previously went blue, and Nevada and Virginia who previously went red. Iowa is trending more Republican as their voter demographics become less ethnically diverse and more college educated. Whereas the growing racial and ethnic demographics have moved Virginia and Nevada more solidly towards the blue column even in a close election year.

This means that, all things being equal, in your typical modern election Republican would be almost as likely to win Iowa and New Hampshire as your typical Democrat would be likely to win Virginia and Nevada.

Now, let's flip back to reality. Our sad, sad scary reality where Trump is (thankfully) being shellacked. Here's what the "average" electoral map looks like right now:

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Yep. That's right. If an election were held today, Hillary Clinton has a higher chance of winning Kansas than Donald Trump has of winning the Presidency. Now, let's be aware that this is the electoral map reflecting "today's" average state-wide and national polling. How many points is Hillary Clinton ahead by? About 8%.

Want to see what happens if Donald Trump continues to say incredibly stupid things like disrespecting the family of a fallen soldier, or mocking disabled reporters, or saying that President Obama and Secretary Clinton were literally the founders of ISIS/ISIL?

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This. This is what the average map would look like if Hillary Clinton was ahead of Trump by over 10%. With the light red states being the state Trump could lose if Clinton wins by 15% or more.

Now, it's incredibly unlikely that any of the last scenarios happen. But, this... election has been anything but "likely" and has been rather extraordinary.

So while Trump spends time campaigning in places like Connecticut (for no good reason), Clinton is actively making plays in states considered normally part of the Republican wall: Utah, Arizona, Kansas, Georgia, South Carolina.

Ultimately we have 86 days left in this election. 86.

Please.

Kill me.
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Ervald
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The Goldblum of NationStates

As somebody who is regrettably from Ohio, I sincerely hope my state continue to vote blue. ;-;
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GraVandius
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The Senate

What about Gary's math :P

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Aexnidaral Seymour
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Somebody's got to keep you entertained.

GraVandius
Aug 14 2016, 01:24 AM
What about Gary's math :P
Gary's math is the same probability of me being straight.
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Ervald
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The Goldblum of NationStates

Aexnidaral Seymour
Aug 14 2016, 01:32 AM
Gary's math is the same probability of me being straight.
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Well, a lot of Anumians love same-sex marriage. ;)
Edited by Ervald, Aug 14 2016, 01:49 AM.
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Moronist Decisions
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The fundamental problem though in this country is that of what has happened in the rust belt and coal miners - those who are much less marketable in the job market than they used to be, with less education. There is no good solution, given that their jobs used to be much more secure and pay much more than previously.

SF Chronicle: The Millennial View: There’s no easy answer for the bereft Boomer worker

For this reason, I suspect Trump has a better shot at Ohio than NC possibly. PA dynamics might be similar, though the two ends are more extreme I suspect (Philly vs middle of state).

However, I don't get the sense that Ohio is really a militantly republican area, as opposed to moderately republican. So I'm a little waffly.
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Mousebumples
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If you give this mouse a cookie, she'll probably ask for some cheese.

I can't speak for Ohio, but I know that in the Republican strongholds of the Milwaukee suburbs in Wisconsin, Trump is toxic. I think that those precincts are much more likely to go third party.

Marquette University Law School August polling
 
In a four-way matchup including Clinton, Trump, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Clinton is supported by 42 percent of registered voters, with Trump at 33 percent, Johnson at 10 and Stein at 4. A total of 11 percent in that matchup say they will vote for none of the candidates, won’t vote or don’t know how they will vote. Among likely voters, Clinton receives 47 percent, Trump 34, Johnson 9 and Stein 3. [Source]
Edited by Mousebumples, Aug 14 2016, 02:27 AM.
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Aexnidaral Seymour
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Somebody's got to keep you entertained.

@MD I get what you're saying.

But, I would say Clinton has a better shot in Ohio than in North Carolina. Just barely. That's mostly because Ohio is more like the country as a whole, whereas North Carolina is slightly more Republican. The margins may be more favorable to Clinton in NC than OH, but statistically, I would say that Ohio is more likely to fall under Clinton's column than North Carolina.

Re: Pennsylvania
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Trump's not going to win Pennsylvania even if she is dead even with him in the polls. Clinton is simply beating him in every real-world political metric: beating him in ground game and infrastructure, ad spending, and fundraising. But that's part of a larger problem with Trump's campaign strategy: he has almost no infrastructure besides local parties and State parties. And in many cases they're starting to abandon Trump to try to save their legislative majorities locally.
Edited by Aexnidaral Seymour, Aug 14 2016, 02:32 AM.
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Moronist Decisions
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WI is also quite different from OH I'd suspect. I'd see OH and possibly PA go for Trump before WI.

The reality is that Clinton has more possibilities open. This is probably why he's forced to campaign for MN and CT; both of them sound crazy.
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Aexnidaral Seymour
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Somebody's got to keep you entertained.

Mostly I think it's just that he's taking advice from himself and ignoring the professionals.
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shufordbrian
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It's pretty lit

I say: Let him do what he wants. Just makes my job easier :P
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Trinnien
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Anecdotal, but my mom has always voted Republican and plans on voting for Hillary because she finds Trump dangerous. As for Indiana.... Pence is deeply despised there and there hasn't been any recent polling, I think it may not be as safely red as some are assuming especially with Evan Bayh in the picture running for Senate - he (and his family) are highly respected in Hoosier politics
Edited by Trinnien, Aug 14 2016, 03:30 AM.
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Aexnidaral Seymour
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Somebody's got to keep you entertained.

Yeah re: Indiana--

The fact that the NRSC/Republican Senate Campaign Committee hasn't leaked polls showing Bayh down is bad news for them.
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Ervald
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Correct me if I am wrong but yes, Ohio is a swing state but it isn't as militant Republican as MD said. It voted for Kaisch and even him didn't even bother showing up at the Republican Convention to endorse Trump. The only militant Republican area I can think of is Southeastern Ohio which is strongly Appalachian and will most likely go along with West Virginia for Trump.
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Trinnien
Aug 14 2016, 03:30 AM
Anecdotal, but my mom has always voted Republican and plans on voting for Hillary because she finds Trump dangerous. As for Indiana.... Pence is deeply despised there and there hasn't been any recent polling, I think it may not be as safely red as some are assuming especially with Evan Bayh in the picture running for Senate - he (and his family) are highly respected in Hoosier politics
Agreed.

As for Ohio, the main area I would be more concerned about would be the traditionally Democratic Youngstown/Akron area
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