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2016 Presidential/General Election
Topic Started: Jul 13 2016, 10:38 PM (1,489 Views)
Mousebumples
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Where do we think things are going with just over a week to go until Election Day?
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GraVandius
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Mousebumples
Oct 30 2016, 05:10 PM
Where do we think things are going with just over a week to go until Election Day?
Clinton wins by a respectable margin.

Paul Ryan is either ousted in House caos or a decent rebuilding agreement is reached.

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Lethen
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Remember when I was famous? Neither do I.

What do we all make of the Trump win (predicted) by Allan Lichtman?
me, basically (click)

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Jahka
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Who? :P
AMDG
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HEM
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former substitute senator to aexnidaral seymour

Assuming no more major surprises (of which there are *rumored* to be two more for Trump, but I'm skeptical) here's my official prediction:

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Battleground States:

Ohio: Trump +2
Pennsylvania: Clinton +5
Michigan: Clinton +6
Wisconsin: Clinton +5
Virginia: Clinton +7
North Carolina: Clinton +3
Florida: Trump +1 (or less)
Nevada: Clinton +2
Arizona: Clinton +1 (or less)
Georgia: Trump +4
Iowa: Trump +4
Utah Trump +2 (over McMullin)
Alaska: Trump +5
HEM
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Lethen
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Remember when I was famous? Neither do I.

Jahka
Oct 31 2016, 07:57 PM
Who? :P
That guy who has predicted every Presidential winner for the past three decades? :P
me, basically (click)

A letter to a friend

By the Prophetical Blessing of Nethel, Supreme Chancellor of the Republic of Europeia and the states within, Destined Overseer of His rightful yet forgotten realms of Estalcia and Old Europe and Crystal Falls, Defender of the Faith and New Jersey, and Heir to the concept of Sarcasm
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Drecq
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EMPEROR OF THAT PLACE OVER THERE, RULER OF THINGS AND PEOPLES, BREEZEBORN, MOTHER OF LIZARDS

Yeah, but he did it in a very simplistic way (additionally you have a 50/50 chance every time so guessing the outcome for 30 years certainly isnt impossible). He has 12 short questions and if 6 of them are answered with yes then the incumbent party loses in his "model". It doesnt account for shifts in the electorate or basically anything else.
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Aexnidaral Seymour
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Somebody's got to keep you entertained.

HEM
Oct 31 2016, 08:53 PM
Assuming no more major surprises (of which there are *rumored* to be two more for Trump, but I'm skeptical) here's my official prediction:

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I mostly agree with this but I would say the "true" tossups are OH, IA, NE2, ME2, AZ, FL, and UT (btwn Trump and McMuffin)

This is what I consider the "true" tossups to be:
Spoiler: click to toggle


And this would be my conservative estimation of the map:
Spoiler: click to toggle
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HEM
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former substitute senator to aexnidaral seymour

It looks like Florida literally could not be any closer. If the election were today I would say Clinton wins thanks to a superior ground-game, but idk, it is VERY close.

I will also take this opportunity where I can do so without risking losing votes, to say how this election has clearly demonstrated how flawed of a candidate Hillary Clinton is and was. Republicans have treated her unfairly without a doubt, but that would be impossible if she hadn't fucked up the email issue literally beyond comprehension. Literally every "horserace" fear Bernie Sanders supporters had about winning the White House with this candidate has come true.

Win or lose, after this next election the Democratic Party really needs to find the next generation of party leaders — a former President Obama might help with that — and let the story of the Clintons quietly come to an end.
HEM
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Aexnidaral Seymour
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Somebody's got to keep you entertained.

The race would've been equally close with Sanders. Or Hillary v Any R. Or Sanders v any R.

Our politics is tribal. Most Republicans will vote R until they die. Most Democrats will vote D until they die.

Pretending this would've been a blowout with any other candidate is frankly silly and wrong. It may make for a cute narrative, but it's simply not the truth. Let's save the bedwetting for another day, yeah?
Edited by Aexnidaral Seymour, Nov 3 2016, 01:46 PM.
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Aexnidaral Seymour
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Somebody's got to keep you entertained.

Also, this discussion is supposed to be about the 2016 election. Not the hypothetical of what could've been if we had a time machine and could take out Hillary and replace her with a candidate we like more.

Let's discuss what's happening in the electionary currently.
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Aexnidaral Seymour
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Somebody's got to keep you entertained.

Moved miscellaneous discussion. Please respect my wishes in my newspaper.
Edited by Aexnidaral Seymour, Nov 3 2016, 02:33 PM.
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Aexnidaral Seymour
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Somebody's got to keep you entertained.

Again, let's move that discussion to the other thread, thanks.
Edited by Aexnidaral Seymour, Nov 3 2016, 05:23 PM.
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Rach
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At Least 5% Sugar

Lethen
Oct 31 2016, 11:55 PM
Jahka
Oct 31 2016, 07:57 PM
Who? :P
That guy who has predicted every Presidential winner for the past three decades? :P
Drecq
 
Yeah, but he did it in a very simplistic way (additionally you have a 50/50 chance every time so guessing the outcome for 30 years certainly isnt impossible).

This is kind of the wrong way in addressing the chances. What are the chances that out of all the people who have guessed the Presidential winners over the past 30 years that someone has gotten them all correct? So the correct answer is not that it isn't impossible but it'd be impossible to think that someone hasn't done so. Thus people like Allan Lichtman are not oddities at all really.
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Jahka
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Aex, isn't this election proving that the nominees do matter and it's not just about party affiliation/demographics/the economy. Allan Lichtman and similar models all predicted a Republican victory. Trump is such a polarizing figure he broke the models and challenges a lot of the mainstream political science thought regarding elections.
AMDG
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Peace, Love, Jahka,
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