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June Citizens' Assembly Poll Analysis; Pull up a Chair
Topic Started: Jun 6 2016, 09:35 PM (106 Views)
Calvin Coolidge
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From June 2-4, this newspaper ran a poll asking citizens their thoughts on the ongoing Citizens' Assembly Chair election, and related matters. That poll garnered twenty-four responses, and we will now go into the results.

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The first two questions are just basic demographics finding questions, so we can see that we had a good spread of user "ages" taking the poll, but the vast majority has been here for over a year. Also, two-thirds of the respondents were members of the CA, and thus eligible to vote in the Chair election, while one-third was not. This is important, because only CA members were allowed to answer the next couple questions about the race. The non-CA members just progressed to the final question about universal CA membership, so the numbers will get smaller for the next few questions.

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What we see here is that out of our sixteen eligible CA member voters, GraVandius captures a plurality of voters in the vital question of fixing the Elections Ordinance, a thorn in the side of the CA for about a year, or longer. To win, voters need to feel a Chair candidate is capable of working on legislation. What's really notable, though, is the strong presence of "None", which earns second place, and one quarter of the vote. That's a pretty high number when there are so many candidates to choose from, and might represent either the growing feeling that the CA is not fixable, or might simply indicate that these candidates are not capable of fixing it. However, since 75% of CA voters believe somebody has a good plan, all hope is not lost.

Next, we see that voters have somebody else favored for non-legislative projects, with United Vietussa picking up four votes (he had none support his legislative plan), putting him in a tie with "None", which again picks up four votes, or one quarter. Here, the field is more evenly dispersed, so it seems no plan has really separated themselves from the pack.

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For our big question, we have a clear winner: GraVandius. Although he still has not broken fifty percent, he has more than triple the support of his closest competitors, and is the clear favorite to win the race, as we see playing out now in the public vote. Whether this is due to the voters supporting his legislative plan more, and we can use this to show the importance of legislative issues over non-legislative seems like a fair assumption, given that the CA is a legislative body. If he is elected, we will watch with interest to see if his legislative plan, which was the most popular, though not by much, will be the plan that actually gets adopted.

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For our final question, we gather the entirety of the respondents to ask about an issue beyond the election, to see where the larger public stands on what has become a hot-button topic: universal CA membership. While there is sizable resistance against the adoption of the idea, the vast majority of those polled feel this is something that should be done. We've seen this play out in the campaign thread of United Vietussia, the lone candidate in the race against the idea, and this very well could have cost him the race, despite the poll showing support for his other, non-legislative plans. Moving forward, it seems that the next Chair would be wise to take action on this.

We'll end this article with the comments that we received, for your consideration.
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While several respondents used this opportunity to restate their views on universal membership, there was also a sizable amount that stated their lack of trust in the crop of Chair candidates, particularly their understanding of legislation, and were worried about Trinnien's (the Chair who's resignation triggered this election) exit, and their hopes for the legislative body's future under new, less experienced leadership.

Overall, this election seems to have been met with a large "meh", with very few people being truly excited about any of the candidates, but mostly settling around GraVandius, who is viewed as the most experienced. Universal membership is pretty much a done deal after the election, but the debate will likely continue, due to the lack of complete acceptance. Until next time, this is Calvin Coolidge, sitting on the sidelines.

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Edited by Calvin Coolidge, Jun 6 2016, 11:05 PM.
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GraVandius
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Next, we see that voters have somebody else favored for non-legislative projects, with United Vietussa picking up four votes (he had none support his legislative plan), putting him in a tie with "None", which again picks up four votes, or one quarter. Here, the field is more evenly dispersed, so it seems no plan has really separated themselves from the pack.

I'd just like to point out that Me, UV and Kark all essentially have the same administrative plans. It's mostly based off of what Trinn said he wanted to accomplish this term (most of which were long standing goals of reformers).

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Notolecta
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Since it has come up a lot can we get the stats on how the 8 non CA members voted on automatic membership. At least two voted for and I'm willing to assume that the two people who said they would vote for UV are against, which would seem to suggest that non-member support is at least 50%.
Edited by Notolecta, Jun 6 2016, 10:54 PM.
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Calvin Coolidge
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Notolecta
Jun 6 2016, 10:53 PM
Since it has come up a lot can we get the stats on how the 8 non CA members voted on automatic membership. At least two voted for and I'm willing to assume that the two people who said they would vote for UV are against, which would seem to suggest that non-member support is at least 50%.
Of the eight non-CA members: six were in favor (75% of non-members), and two are opposed (25%). That means that twelve of the sixteen members were in favor (75% of members), and four out of the sixteen members were opposed (25%). Since the percentages are the same, we can say that being a member of the CA does not sway your opinion on this matter one way or the other. And yes, Noto, both of UV's supporters (in the CA) were against.
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Aexnidaral Seymour
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Somebody's got to keep you entertained.

I was one of the non-ca members who voted for it :P
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Aexnidaral Seymour
Jun 6 2016, 11:40 PM
I was one of the non-ca members who voted for it :P
Same here. :P
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