| Welcome to Europeia! So what the heck is Europeia anyways? Can I join? So, I came here representing another region? I do not want to become a citizen. Where should I go? What offices are there for people to be elected into? What is there for me to do in Europeia? That answers most of my immediate questions. What if I have any more? |
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| ENN December 2015 Election Coverage; POLL RESULTS | |
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| Topic Started: Dec 1 2015, 05:49 PM (514 Views) | |
| Common-Sense Politics | Dec 2 2015, 04:52 PM Post #16 |
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Incapable of Bullshit
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Why are you doing this to us?
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The Venerable Imperator Common-Sense Politics, ER ESE EBS EOB EC ES OR1-4 Father to McEntire Chancellory Decorations Presidential Decorations Resume References
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| HEM | Dec 2 2015, 05:21 PM Post #17 |
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former substitute senator to aexnidaral seymour
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HEM: Welcome back to ENN's General Election coverage. I'm HEM Tiberius, and we are here to look more deeply into our election polling. At our last update we heard the breaking news that according to the raw numbers, Ninja Kittens is currently leading the race by a hair. But as always, the full story is more complicated than that. Paul Krugman: Indeed, HEM. So when we gave Europeians a choice to pick their candidate, or indicated that they were undecided, Ninja Kittens came out on top. ![]() However, and this is a BIG however, when we became weasels and demanded that the undecideds pick someone, they went overwhelming for Kraketopia. ![]() Look at these numbers. Of the 35% of the region that is currently undecided, Kraketopia sweeps almost 67% percent of them. So while the top-sheet results indicate that Ninja Kittens is leading, in all likelihood, if the election were held today, Kraketopia would have 18 votes to Kittens' 14. If anybody is doing the math at home, that would be the majority needed to win the Goldenblock without a runoff. HEM: What does this mean? John Major: It means this election is close as hell. Michelle Bachmann: Look, I think this is an insanely high number of people who are undecided. And many of them have come forward to say, 'yeah, I said Kraketopia, but I am really really not sure' and so this race is truly anybody's game. Paul Krugman: I think Kraketopia's folks are going to spin this like, so: Ninja Kittens got a bump from her platform that exceeded expectations, but now voters will come home to the reliable leader. Michelle Bachmann: And I think Ninja Kittens' folks will say that this is a clear indication of Kraketopia's weakness that is likely to continue. John Major: And I truly think that one is just as likely as the other. HEM: Alrighty folks, when we come back we will be discussing the breakdown of the vote by age-demographic in an attempt to see if this race is dividing Europeia by "old" and "new" lines. We'll be back. |
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| Aexnidaral Seymour | Dec 2 2015, 06:33 PM Post #18 |
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Somebody's got to keep you entertained.
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Always with the breaks! I can't watch the youtube clip on my phone ; ( |
![]() ![]() ![]() Family, Resume, and Awards "... Aex, who is treated like the Europeian version of Nickelback by a lot of people here."
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| HEM | Dec 3 2015, 10:57 PM Post #19 |
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former substitute senator to aexnidaral seymour
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HEM: And we are back with the conclusion of our polling analysis! John Major: About damn time, I've been analyzing this poll for like a week now. HEM: Stfu! Anyway, back to Paul Krugman with the numbers. Paul? Paul Krugman: Right you are HEM. We left off with this question: is there a generational divide in the numbers? That is to say, do certain age demographics support one candidate over another? Michelle Bachmann: Indeed we were! Paul Krugman: Well, we at ENN broke down the numbers, and looked at what candidate each demographic supported. ![]() So, for instance, 33% of those who said they had been in Europeia under 3 months - 1 year, 33% voted for Kraketopia, 25% for Ninja Kittens, 8% for Shuford, and 33% were undecided. We compressed the categories from a poll a little bit to get larger bins, and hopefully a little more clarity, but it looks like we can only draw a few conclusions. John Major: I think what is extraordinarily interesting is that while the electorate is extremely undecided on the whole, the 1 - 3 year demographic has no undecideds at all, and they are breaking solidly for Ninja Kittens. Michelle Bachmann: It is also very interesting that the majority of the undecideds are coming from the older members. A majority of those that have been in Europeia over 3 years are undecided, with Kraketopia and Ninja Kittens almost spilling the percentage of them that have made up their mind. Paul Krugman: While there don't seem to be any huge demographic splits, 1 - 3 years is clearly a pivotal demographic to win, and they are carrying Ninja Kittens. I think this is the generation that has been told about this Very Great And Political Europeia, and they are hoping to recreate it. While the newer members haven't seen Kraketopia as President, but have seen his awesome work as Grand Admiral and are looking to give him a shot as President, and the older members just can't make up their damn minds. HEM: Alrighty, we are going to bring in some other voices. With us now we have ACE Party Chairman, Aexnidaral Seymour, Minister Netz, Vice President Calvin Coolidge and Assembly Chair GraVandius. Welcome guys. Now tell me, has this close election surprised you? Aexnidaral: Hmmmmm... kind of? Going into it I honestly though Kraken would've been able to just walk right into the Presidency. Kraken has a very solid platform, but I honestly think it could have, and should have been stronger. I think his debate performances really showed and improved upon some of what his platform was lacking and showed a little more of his ambition and drive. While I found the platform solid it was a little underwhelming, and that's where I think NK's opening was, and why she chose to launch her campaign. Netz: Before NK stood it definitely looked like Kraken was going to have an easy run to the presidency. I am happy that NK stood and created some competition because it makes the whole race a lot more interesting. Through that competition it created a different dynamic to the race, and helped cement different ideas that the candidates had. It didn't upset my expectations, it definitely improved upon them and made the race much better and much more worthwhile to the region. Calvin Coolidge: Not really. I think the debates show the real race, and they show that NK, while a passionate candidate, is struggling to match Kraken on the issues in his wheelhouse. I'm not surprised that this race is close, considering we had three terms of the same President, people like to see election excitement. HEM: What do you think about this demographic breakdown? Any surprises there? Calvin Coolidge: I'd say it's surprising NK has more of the experienced vote than Kraken. Aexnidaral: Yeah, that's more surprising Honestly, I think this election hinges on only one thing: how many younger members break for NK. I'll rename the three categories: newbies, moderately old members, and the ones practically collecting euro social security. The old, older members 3+ yrs will break, I'm almost certain, heavily for Kraken. At the end of the day the moderate members are going to be split more evenly, I feel like for some reason those numbers are overstating her lead. If NK wins, it'll be because the newer members break her way if they can be bothered to actually show up to vote. Netz: The two groups are actually pretty close. I do wonder how the small percentages who said they’d vote for Shufie would vote now Aexnidaral: I'd also wager that the "undecideds" who are older members have a softer undecided, they're a lot more likely to be "undecided" but /lean/ to supporting a candidate; whereas the younger members are what I would say are hard undecideds, actually, fundamentally, unsure. Netz: I think the older members who voted undecided were more waiting to see how a candidate could “wow” them, to sway their opinion GraVandius: That does suprise me in some ways and in others does not. NK to me at least seems to be the more energizeing canidate while Kraken seeems to rest on past experience and I would have though that would have garnered her the "young vote" while Kraken would garner the suport of the "old vote". However it apears to be haveing the oposite efect. I'm not suprised however that over 50% of the 3+ years voters are undecided. They probably want to take thier time to finalize the decision of who they want. I also feel that it is unsuprising that NK has a superior lead in the 1-3 year range as that is the group she herself falls into. If the 3+ years break in Kraken's direction as many suspect then NK has to get the "newcomers" to come out in droves in her suport. Netz: I think the newer members are leaning towards Kraken in that vote BECAUSE of his experience. The newer members don’t necessarily know the two candidates and may not have spoken to, or communicated with them, but it has been made pretty clear that Kraken has a long history of experience, and so the newer members might have instinctually been drawn to that in lieu of actually having the knowledge of the two candidates to form an opinion off of. Writinglegend: Which is surprising considering NK has a lot to leverage off of recently being CA Chair. But, in looking at it, Kraken has been a highly successful GA where newcomers also go. HEM: Changing tact for a second. We are talking a lot about this poll, but do you guys think the race has significantly changed at all since this poll was commissioned? Aexnidaral:Absolutely, like I said previously, I think post debates the older members have become more decided, towards Kraken, and the mid aged members have become less spread, closing the gap. Netz: I think the debates have added more substance to the two tickets, so where someone might have been undecided before, the debates and answers that the two candidates have given would have helped those people to decide on who they want to vote for Calvin Coolidge: I think this second debate has shifted people's minds, if they're paying attention. Writinglegend: Pretty much this. I'm glad we've had two fantastically hosted debates that forced candidates to give more details rather than restate their platform. Aexnidaral: If anything, I think the debates have highlighted what we've all suspected from the beginning: kraken is the candidate of germane hard experience, and NK is the underdog with a vision. Writinglegend: Which is something we've been too common with in the past: generic questions that are simply restatements of platforms which don't always lead to a plethora of details the voters should have. Netz: The actual substance presented in the debates has been great. It's been really helpful to get to know where the candidates stand and what they will actually bring to the table, rather than posts of empty promises and vague, half-formed ideas. GraVandius: I think the large deciding faction, is in reality is the 0-6 monthers who are not that active. They probably did not read the debates if they were not there seeing it live. Both the candidates need to reach out to this demographic in order to win this election. As the older members shift to Kraken as others have said this group becomes more and more important. HEM: The shuford platform got a lot of heat. Was the incredible negative reaction to the platform too harsh, or was it a case of "can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen?" Writinglegend: Not too harsh. They're standing for President of Europeia, and must present a platform that shows. Calvin Coolidge: They're platform was extremely weak, and deserved the scrutiny it got. They left so many blank spaces. Aexnidaral: So many blank spaces that Taylor Swift could've written a song about it? Netz: The excommunication typo was great, but their platform was half-baked at best. They forgot culture, for heavens sake. That should be an unforgivable offense. GraVandius: t was definetly a case "can't stand the heat", as a person who was on a presidential ticket that took some heat for lacking in FA its important to be able to take it and learn from it. Me and Kaboom took the time to put together a "full" platform ahead of the game, I suspect shufie and prom did not follow suit. Netz: You have to be able to learn from your mistakes. Their platform was extremely lacking in almost every possible area. If they learn from that, and move forward to improve the next time they should decide they have gained some experience and are ready to move forward in the region then they’ll be fine. But if they can’t take the criticism that was given to them that could be an issue moving forward. HEM: FINALLY: What are your election predictions? Aexnidaral: Depending on how the demographics break: NK by a hair, or Kraken by around 57%+ Writinglegend: Kraken wins by four-six votes. GraVandius: That depends if NK can get the newcomers to come out, I think she wins this election by 4-5 votes, if not then this is probably going to be a Kraken win by a slight margin. Netz: At the current moment, it looks like it could go either way. It really depends on what people decide to put extra value on when they go to the vote HEM: Alrighty guys, thank you very much. ENN will be back to the opening of polls, and of course, to watch the dramatic results. We'll be back. |
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| zapper | Dec 3 2015, 11:37 PM Post #20 |
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JOHN MAJOR :o Was that carrot?
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| HEM | Dec 3 2015, 11:39 PM Post #21 |
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former substitute senator to aexnidaral seymour
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All the "real life" names are me I just produce them in order to simulate different points of view when I don't have real people to do it for me.John Major and Paul Krugman have been working for ENN for years.
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| Sopo | Dec 4 2015, 12:32 AM Post #22 |
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Lord High Chancellor Emeritus
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And Jay Leno is in a ditch somewhere crying out for help. |
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| Boomer | Dec 4 2015, 12:35 AM Post #23 |
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Casual and Unashamed
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*blames Sopo* |
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| HEM | Dec 4 2015, 01:20 AM Post #24 |
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former substitute senator to aexnidaral seymour
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His ratings just weren't there. |
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| HEM | Dec 4 2015, 07:58 AM Post #25 |
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former substitute senator to aexnidaral seymour
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HEM: And we are back, with some of the first results in. Polls have now been open just three hours, and here is how things are shaking up.
After a literal dead heat for a few hours, Kraketopia has bought himself a tiny bit of breathing room. With as little as 1/2 of the vote in, however, this race is still very close. Now turning to our political panel: do we see anything in these early numbers? Calvin Coolidge: I think that both NK and Kraken should be worried it's still so close. They both needed momentum going into this to pull ahead, and it looks like nobody got it. Aexnidaral: If I had to prognosticate at gun point: Kraken's number should look better right now, unless the older active members are saving their voters for closer until the end. HEM: Looking at Calvin's poll numbers, do you think the debates will have an impact on the final result? Aexnidaral: Absolutely. If I had to say anything it seems like Kraken's over aggressiveness hurt him Calvin Coolidge: I think it shows that they do. Possibly more than ever this year, since we have so many undecideds. HEM: Alrighty folks. We are going to cut to smutty late night television. We'll be back in the morning with dayside to discuss the results further. From everyone here at ENN, goodnight. Edited by HEM, Dec 4 2015, 08:04 AM.
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| Mousebumples | Dec 4 2015, 03:26 PM Post #26 |
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If you give this mouse a cookie, she'll probably ask for some cheese.
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We've already got 53 votes in. How many do we think we'll have at the end? We have 57 last cycle, and that seems likely to be smashed. 75 votes? 100 votes? |
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| Boomer | Dec 4 2015, 03:28 PM Post #27 |
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Casual and Unashamed
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Not just quantity, but how close it is. It's the February elections all over again. Last term had 57 votes, but WL had three-quarters of them. |
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| HEM | Dec 4 2015, 04:44 PM Post #28 |
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former substitute senator to aexnidaral seymour
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HEM: And we are back. A close election has gotten even closer over the nighttime hours, with only a single vote separating our candidates:
John Major: You can't get much closer than this, with a different of only 2% of the vote. This election is crazy, crazy close. Paul Krugman: We spent a lot of time talking about the voters who said they were undecided, but when prodded for an answer, chose Kraketopia and whether Ninja Kittens could peel some of them away. It looks like she did. Michelle Bachmann: I think we've seen a pivotal shift in the race. We had two major scenarios when voting opened: Ninja Kittens taking the election by a hair, or Kraketopia winning by more than we expected. I think something has fundamentally shifted, and Ninja Kittens will probably squeak through here. Kraketopia just could not seal the deal. John Major: I wouldn't go that far, Michelle. I think Kraketopia has maintained a steady lead throughout the contest. He might not get the commanding mandate he wants, but I think the smart money is still on him. The less engaged members who are likely to stumble into the voting booth at the very end will recognize his name, know he is a solid official, and give him their vote. Paul Krugman: Let's assume that what we found in our poll still stands: that the ancient members of this region are the undecideds. They are probably the citizens who are still holding onto their vote. If they stick to their roots, to their gut, and vote for Kraketopia in the end, he could still pull this off. HEM: Breaking news, folks. Kraketopia's running mate, Trinnien, just made the following statement in the EuroChat Skype channel.
Paul Krugman: Very interesting. Michelle Bachmann: Look, if I am Kraketopia or Trinnien right now, I am very nervous. I am very very nervous. Where are the last votes coming from? When are they coming in? Maybe I have a few friends holding their votes, maybe I haven't voted yet, but we have already seen a 6+ vote swing away from Kraketopia at a time where we all thought he was wrapping this race up. There are not guarantees. HEM: Could we be close to facing our first ever tied election? John Major: Honestly, I doubt it. Europeians like sealing up contests, and I think the last voters in will deliver a decisive winner. Michelle Bachmann: I wouldn't bet money on it, but it is certainly possible. I think this region was really ready to give the candidates a critical eye in this election, and the totality of them may not mind waiting another 48 hours to make sure they are picking the best possible leader. HEM: Alrighty folks, we'll be back with more coverage and discussion from our panel after this. |
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| Mousebumples | Dec 4 2015, 05:21 PM Post #29 |
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If you give this mouse a cookie, she'll probably ask for some cheese.
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For anyone who is wondering what kind of fuzzy math Bachmann is using (arguable! - as Elections Official, I have decided that in the event that a run-off is needed, I will pause for 24 hours to permit a "re-campaign" period. The run-off is not required by law to be "immediate," so this may result in a different response from voters - and would hopefully remove the need for any of the other tie-breaking procedures.A run off, if required, will begin at approximately midnight EST on Sunday, December 6th. |
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| HEM | Dec 4 2015, 09:42 PM Post #30 |
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former substitute senator to aexnidaral seymour
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How is this race so close? Did the debates have a big impact? HEM: To our viewers in Europeia and around the world, welcome back to ENN's coverage of the November 2015 General Elections. I'm HEM Tiberius, and with over sixty votes cast, ENN is still unable to make a projection on who will be our next President:
The lead has now flipped back to Kraketopia after Ninja Kittens lead by a single vote for a few hours. On our panel today is former Senator Shin 2.0, WA Delegate Mousebumples, ACE Party Chairman Aexnidaral, and Culture Minister Netz. Our first question is an obvious, are we surprised? Mousebumples: Not really, no. Not that I expected this, exactly, per se. But I'm not surprised. Aexnidaral: I am surprised it's as close as it's been, when I refer to close, I usually think within a 5 or 7 point margin, this is excruciating. We are back to a 50-50 split! Mousebumples: Reminds me, and many I'm sure, of the Sopo-Calvin contest back in February. Netz: I was expecting it to be a good race, but I was definitely not expecting it to be this close. Shin: I think close races are the norm - we enjoy the closeness of a good campaign. But this one is too close for it to be expected Aexnidaral: If this were real life I'd say "NK's turnout operation is doing far better than I thought", but... it's not so I'll settle with "wow, the newbies really like her." Netz: I like how close it is, it keeps it interesting, but I'm glad I'm not one of the candidates it'd be killing me Shin: I also believe being able to see the vote is impacting the race HEM: Besides being able to see the results, what do you think contributed to this being such a close race? Going into election day the conventional wisdom seemed to be that Kraketopia was leading by a hair. Mousebumples: For newer members, NK was the recent CA chair. They weren't around when Kraken was President. If they're not involved in the Navy, they may have no clue who he is. NK is a visible individual to newcomers that are CA members. Kraken isn't. Aexnidaral: It's hard to say, but to some extent I think Kraken's aggressiveness and dismissiveness towards NK steered some votes away from him at the end of the debates. I'm going to jokingly refer to everyone sitting on the election page and refreshing as 'exit polling', and I think it's really clear that the split is in the newer members. Early this morning the split was 60 krak/ 40 NK, and it's bounced around between a 1 vote lead or tie when the newer guys have been voting. Mousebumples: How many people have really read and followed the debates though? Shin: Yeah there is no doubt that Kraken represents the establishment Mousebumples: It's great to say that debates are making the big impact, but we had maybe 25 people in #euro for the debate, and 10 of them are usually there and are international players that can't vote. Aexnidaral: Didn't like 32 people take Panda's poll? No, that was HEM's with the higher numbers, ok! Mousebumples: Some people read the debate, but I don't think most newcomers have. I hope I'm wrong - which is why I linked it in the Region-Wide TG - but to make sweeping statemtents like that seems like you're over-estimating things. I don't think that the debates were that big of a swing. To say it steered away "some votes" may be valid. But I don't know if that is sufficient explanation. Both candidates lost the Domestic Debate in my view. Aexnidaral: After the FA debate Krake had 70% leaning or outright support; NK had 35; after the Domestic Debate krak drops to 50% with NK at 45%. Kraken will win. With the vote margin being so close. Inevitably hy and DH will vote for Kraken and push him over the top. Mousebumples: There are more votes outstanding, probably. HEM: And that folks, we'll be right back! |
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- as Elections Official, I have decided that in the event that a run-off is needed, I will pause for 24 hours to permit a "re-campaign" period. The run-off is not required by law to be "immediate," so this may result in a different response from voters - and would hopefully remove the need for any of the other tie-breaking procedures.