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How Long Does It Take To Become President?; and is it taking longer?
Topic Started: Jun 4 2018, 06:41 PM (303 Views)
GraVandius
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How Long Does It Take To Become President?and is it taking longer?

This most recent Presidential Election saw all three candidates being members who had joined within a few months of each other in 2015. In the end of course Deepest House won. He did so after spending 1,180 days in the region from his join date. This places him at the 6th longest time-to-presidency of the 36 people whom have served as President of the Region.

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As seen on the graph above CSP is the fastest to the Presidency (with 71 Days) and Aex is the longest to the Presidency (with 2498 days). Both of these titles come with an asterisk however. CSP stepped up to the Presidency via the Vice-Presidency while Aex had a undeserved kerfluffle with the law that prompted a few years leave of absence.

With these outliers in the average (mean) time to the Presidency is 628 days, which is about 1 year 7 months.

If you remove Aex, and those who reach the Presidency for the first time via the vice presidency (CSP, Earth 22 and Darcness) the average (mean) time to the Presidency drops down about two weeks to 609 days.

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Moving on to the second part of today's study, above is a scatter plot of days to the Presidency over the dates they were elected or ascended. There does not appear to be a clear trend line within this data. There are a lot of people clumped at the bottom prior to 2010 simply due to the factors that the forum had not been around for that long before that. However, Starting with now banned former President Anumia in September 2010 Time to the Presidency significantly increased as seen in the table bellow.

Before September 2010 (With Outlier)251
After September 2010 (Without Outliers)256
Before September 2010 (Without Outliers)850
After September 2010 (With Outliers)898


To check if the average time to Presidency has been rising since then, just in case my eyes lied to me when looking at the scatter plot, I split the Presidents after September 2010 in half along the line of Kraken's first term in May 2014. Of note, note no one ascended to the Presidency for the first time visa the vice presidency from 2011 to 2014 so there is not a without outlier line for that period.
Before May 2014 (With Outlier)877
After May 2014 (With Outlier)916
After May 2014 (Without Outlier)819

As you can see in the table even with Aex's massive amount of time to presidency the averages are still fairly close. Once you take Aex out however the average time to presidency actually has been lower from 2014 to now compared to from 2010-2014.

This admittedly is the opposite conclusion that I had anticipated when I started the study. I figured that the frequent repeat Presidents over the past few years would have significantly driven up the time to presidency of newer members. It is possible however that the effects of that have not yet set into the averages here. It would make sense logically that as time goes on and thus the pool of potential repeat Presidents increases the average will begin to tick up considerably for now however it seems to be that this has not yet become a problem.

That is it for this weeks study from the ERI. What are your thoughts? Additionally if anyone has any suggestions of what I should look at next feel free to drop them bellow or into my dms as I don't yet have any plans for next week!
Edited by GraVandius, Jun 4 2018, 06:41 PM.

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Ervald
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Great analysis, GraV! Never thought about this.
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Rach
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I don't think join date is always a good barometer. My join date is much earlier than when I first got citizenship because I was initially an ambassador here and this is the case for at least a few Presidents.
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GraVandius
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Rach
Jun 4 2018, 06:59 PM
I don't think join date is always a good barometer. My join date is much earlier than when I first got citizenship because I was initially an ambassador here and this is the case for at least a few Presidents.
Your right that its probably not the best metric but I do think it is still a decent metric as I assume even as an ambassador their was some familiarity with the community from that start date going forward. This would of course be negated if someone created an account as a new NSer and did not apply for citizenship for an extended period of time.
Edited by GraVandius, Jun 4 2018, 07:49 PM.

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Kari
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I need to become president to massively skew this graph
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Almost shockingly aggressive.
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GraVandius
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Kari
Jun 4 2018, 07:33 PM
I need to become president to massively skew this graph
Well If you ran in the next Presidential Election and won it would be 3793 days which basically would squish everybody except Aex down onto the bottom boxes.

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Le Libertie
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Back to business

What exactly happened with Aex?

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Aexnidaral Seymour
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Jun 4 2018, 08:00 PM
What exactly happened with Aex?
You can read about the gripping saga here, here, and here. Personally I hope the sequel trilogy is better than the original trilogy.

After that in 2012 I asked to be voluntarily banned to get me away from the game. NS is pretty addicting -- and I suffer from depression. I was in a pretty bad place and needed the ability force myself to walk away. That lasted until I came back in 2015.
Edited by Aexnidaral Seymour, Jun 4 2018, 08:24 PM.
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Aexnidaral Seymour
Jun 4 2018, 08:24 PM
Le Libertie
Jun 4 2018, 08:00 PM
What exactly happened with Aex?
You can read about the gripping saga here, here, and here. Personally I hope the sequel trilogy is better than the original trilogy.

After that in 2012 I asked to be voluntarily banned to get me away from the game. NS is pretty addicting -- and I suffer from depression. I was in a pretty bad place and needed the ability force myself to walk away. That lasted until I came back in 2015.
There's an impressive number of banned people in that first thread :ph43r:
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Aexnidaral Seymour
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lmao, it's like a banned/PNG hunger games.
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"... Aex, who is treated like the Europeian version of Nickelback by a lot of people here."
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Darcness
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I figured that the frequent repeat Presidents over the past few years would have significantly driven up the time to presidency of newer members.
This is bad math. Since your data points are join date and first presidency, repeat presidents just rob you of additional subjects. If what you're really shooting for here is 'when does a newcomer have a real shot', you should consider join date to Presidency date for EVERY presidency. Writinglegend's 7 presidencies would then slowly push the bar upward, as each one was further from the last. (Note: HEM would blow this particular graph up like whoa, so he's the outlier you drop). This is even a somewhat fair comparison, as during each of WL's presidencies, there were a 'class' of newcomers that were not given a shot at the presidency. Something to think about.

ETA: To be clear, the overall premise of the article, and the data represented, are interesting! I'm just pointing out that this particular statement contained flawed logic.
Edited by Darcness, Jun 6 2018, 08:23 AM.
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GraVandius
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This is bad math. Since your data points are join date and first presidency, repeat presidents just rob you of additional subjects. If what you're really shooting for here is 'when does a newcomer have a real shot', you should consider join date to Presidency date for EVERY presidency. Writinglegend's 7 presidencies would then slowly push the bar upward, as each one was further from the last. (Note: HEM would blow this particular graph up like whoa, so he's the outlier you drop). This is even a somewhat fair comparison, as during each of WL's presidencies, there were a 'class' of newcomers that were not given a shot at the presidency. Something to think about.

I think your correct in that I did not properly account for repeat Presidencies. However I think your proposed method of accounting for them would be valid for only consecutive repeat presidencies. For repeat presidencies that were not consecutive, for the time in between the Presidencies you would be counting as time that allegedly prevented someone else from being President even though during that time someone else was actually serving as President.

Additionally, your points makes me notice that the jump in Time-To-Presidency occurred after the second longest serving president, in Anumia, which suggests perhaps that aspiring Presidents stuck out the half year delay caused by Anumia's frequent Presidencies but did not stick out the year long delay of Writinglegend's presidencies. Or alternatively, that those proverbially blocked by WL simply have yet to become President. Since I believe that has only technically been two people, Kaboom and Rand as they are the only Presidential candidates to loose to WL in an election that have not already become President.
Edited by GraVandius, Jun 6 2018, 02:10 PM.

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Deepest House
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Interesting read and good points made all around.
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GraVandius
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Ervald
Jun 4 2018, 06:45 PM
Great analysis, GraV! Never thought about this.
Deepest House
Jun 7 2018, 08:30 PM
Interesting read and good points made all around.

Thanks Guys! It's much appreciated.
Edited by GraVandius, Jun 8 2018, 01:34 PM.

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