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Europeia Just Might Reopen Nominations; January Presidential Flash Poll Results
Topic Started: Jan 12 2018, 01:51 AM (203 Views)
Calvin Coolidge
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For the past 24 hours, The Panda's Pen has been conducting a flash poll on the presidential election. During that time we collected 31 responses, and here they are.

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Definitely Rach: 8 | Leaning Rach: 10
Definitely RON: 6 | Leaning RON: 6
Undecided: 1

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Rach/Malashaan:17
Reopen Nominations: 14

When looking at the current preferences of voters, we see that a majority (58.1%) are in Rach's corner, either as a strong or slight supporter, while only 38.8% favor re-opening nominations. However, when forced to commit to one choice or the other, Rach suffers, as one of her "leaning supporters", as well as the undecided voter move over to reopen nominations (RON). Looking at both questions, Rach is clearly more likely to win, but given the margin of error in polls such as this, and our limited reach in terms of voters, this is essentially a toss-up; and that's kind of concerning if you are Rach. It's one thing to potentially lose a race as an incumbent, but to have the voters potentially reject you when you are the only candidate running speaks to a lack of trust, which these next few questions might shine a light on in more detail.

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Yes: 6
No: 25

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Yes: 13
No: 18

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Yes: 20
No: 11

These three questions taken together paint an electorate not pleased with how this election has played out in both the candidate field, and the eventual platform released. While the displeasure with the one candidate field is overwhelming, the concern over Rach's platform is relatively lesser, and might be easier to overcome. Either way, seeing these questions, along with the respondent comments below, seem to put the toss-up between Rach and RON in context.
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Thank you for checking out this poll, and remember to vote in tomorrow's presidential election to have your voice heard. Until next time, this is Calvin Coolidge, adjusting his camera settings.

Raw Data
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Nick Powell
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Thank you Calvin for running this poll.
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Olde Delaware
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Interesting poll results, though I didn't have a chance to vote, I too wish that more people had run in the election.
Olde Delaware
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Moronist Decisions
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Thank you for the data and the analysis. I think this is pointing to the very large crowding effect that Rach had.

While I believe Rach will ultimately win, I believe in large part this is because most expert Europeians, I think, expected a very high level from the platform. I would not say that the platform is deficient per se; I suspect the numbers reflect in large part the very high expectations Europeians had of Rach and Malashaan. Certainly the delay and, possibly, the rushed platform would, in my estimation, cost the incoming administration influence that they may regret losing.
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PhDre
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Rach will win; less active citizens care less about platforms and also do not respond to flash polls. If Rach has approximately 60% approval with no challengers among active / political members, it is troubling politically but it does not stand in the way of reelection.

It's also difficult if impossible with the way the poll was phrased to tease out whether disappointment in the platform comes solely from how late it was posted, or if there are greater concerns about the content of the platform.
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Ali
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So the majority of responders are not satisfied with the platform and concerned about its late release but eventually it might not have an impact when it comes to general vote. Interesting.
Edited by Ali, Jan 12 2018, 06:11 PM.
Alissa Fontainon
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Airbus
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Rach will win. But if she doesn't do it by some satisfactory margin (+10 or 15%) it might send an unhealthy wave through the region as the administration would lack both legitimacy and an opponent. Only future will say.

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The Esteemed Airbus
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