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Presidential Flash Poll Results
Topic Started: Oct 27 2017, 07:43 PM (726 Views)
Aexnidaral Seymour
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Foreword: I want to thank all of those who came out to take my poll. The sample size was significant for a community like ours, however because of the dynamics of our community polling isn't a science. There's no way to weight numbers to be more accurate of a demographic, and there's no way to know X or Y variables that you can account for in real life. These numbers aren't the end-all-be-all, and it's not the end of the world. You should always take polls with a grain (or whole shaker) of salt. I could run the same poll tomorrow and get wildly different results based solely upon who is turning up to participate. At the end of the day there's only one poll that matters: the voting booth. So be sure that you get out and make your voice heard when it really counts on Election Day.


crosstab
Edited by Aexnidaral Seymour, Oct 30 2017, 10:45 PM.
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Aexnidaral Seymour
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Presidential Head-to-Heads

If the Presidential election were being held today which ticket would you vote for?

Darcness/Sopo54.3%
Brunhilde/JayDee25.7%
Oakrugia/Dark Templar2.9%
Alan Lee/Pieter Fitzherbert2.9%
Don't Know/Undecided14.3%
Graphic


(Push) If the Presidential election were being held today which ticket would you vote for?

Darcness/Sopo57.1%
Brunhilde/JayDee31.4%
Oakrugia/Dark Templar8.6%
Alan Lee/Pieter Fitzherbert2.9%
Graphic

Edited by Aexnidaral Seymour, Oct 27 2017, 08:20 PM.
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"... Aex, who is treated like the Europeian version of Nickelback by a lot of people here."
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Aexnidaral Seymour
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Tangential to Race

How much attention have you been able to pay to the Presidential election -- a lot, some, not much, or no attention so far?

A lot, I've already read all of the platforms.65.7%
Some, I've read some platforms.25.7%
Not much, I've only know of a few candidates who stood.5.7%
No attention so far.2.9%
Graphic


How likely is it that you will vote in the Presidential election -- would you say you will definitely vote, probably vote, probably not vote, or definitely not vote in the election for President?

I will definitely vote.88.6%
I will probably vote.11.4%
I will probably not vote.-
I will definitely not vote.-
Graphic


Is your mind made up or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

My mind is made up.57.1%
I might change my mind.42.9%
Graphic


Would you describe your support for your preferred Candidate as strongly favoring, or do you like your candidate but with reservations, or do you support because you dislike the other candidates?

I strongly favor my candidate57.1%
I support my candidate, but with reservations31.4%
I dislike the other candidates.11.4%
Graphic


Would you describe your support for your preferred Candidate as strongly favoring, or do you like your candidate but with reservations, or do you support because you dislike the other candidates?

Very Enthusiastic42.9%
Somewhat Enthusiastic42.9%
Not Enthusiastic At All14.3%
Graphic


Comments

Edited by Aexnidaral Seymour, Oct 27 2017, 08:21 PM.
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"... Aex, who is treated like the Europeian version of Nickelback by a lot of people here."
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Aexnidaral Seymour
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Approval by Ticket

Do you approve or disapprove of the Darcness/Sopo ticket?

Strongly Approve25.7%
Approve48.6%
Approval74.3%
No Opinion8.6%
Disapproval17.1%
Disapprove17.1%
Strongly Disapprove-%
Graphic


Do you approve or disapprove of the Brunhilde/JayDee ticket?

Strongly Approve20%
Approve25.7%
Approval45.7%
No Opinion14.3%
Disapproval40%
Disapprove20%
Strongly Disapprove20%
Graphic


Do you approve or disapprove of the Oakrugia/Dark Templar?

Strongly Approve5.7%
Approve8.6%
Approval14.3%
No Opinion17.1%
Disapproval68.6%
Disapprove42.9%
Strongly Disapprove25.7%
Graphic


Do you approve or disapprove of the Alan Lee/Pieter Fitzherbert?

Strongly Approve5.7%
Approve8.6%
Approval14.3%
No Opinion14.3%
Disapproval71.4%
Disapprove14.3%
Strongly Disapprove57.1%
Graphic


Comments

Edited by Aexnidaral Seymour, Oct 27 2017, 08:22 PM.
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"... Aex, who is treated like the Europeian version of Nickelback by a lot of people here."
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Aexnidaral Seymour
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Approval by Candidate

As a candidate and prospective President, do you approve or disapprove of Darcness?

Strongly Approve42.9%
Approve34.3%
Approval77.2%
No Opinion5.7%
Disapproval17.2%
Disapprove14.3%
Strongly Disapprove2.9%
Graphic


As a candidate and prospective President, do you approve or disapprove of Brunhilde?

Strongly Approve31.4%
Approve25.7%
Approval57.1%
No Opinion5.7%
Disapproval37.1%
Disapprove20%
Strongly Disapprove17.1%
Graphic


As a candidate and prospective President, do you approve or disapprove of Oakrugia?

Strongly Approve2.9%
Approve11.4%
Approval14.3%
No Opinion22.9%
Disapproval62.2%
Disapprove37.1%
Strongly Disapprove25.7%
Graphic


As a candidate and prospective President, do you approve or disapprove of Alan Lee?

Strongly Approve5.7%
Approve14.3%
Approval20%
No Opinion14.3%
Disapproval65.7%
Disapprove28.6%
Strongly Disapprove37.1%
Graphic


As a candidate and prospective Vice President, do you approve or disapprove of Sopo?

Strongly Approve34.3%
Approve48.6%
Approval82.9%
No Opinion11.4%
Disapproval5.7%
Disapprove5.7%
Strongly Disapprove-
Graphic


As a candidate and prospective Vice President, do you approve or disapprove of JayDee?

Strongly Approve11.4%
Approve34.3%
Approval45.7%
No Opinion20%
Disapproval34.3%
Disapprove8.6%
Strongly Disapprove25.7%
Graphic


As a candidate and prospective Vice President, do you approve or disapprove of Dark Templar?

Strongly Approve-
Approve5.7%
Approval5.7%
No Opinion28.6%
Disapproval65.7%
Disapprove28.6%
Strongly Disapprove37.1%
Graphic


As a candidate and prospective Vice President, do you approve or disapprove of Pieter Fitzherbert?

Strongly Approve2.9%
Approve2.9%
Approval5.8%
No Opinion22.9%
Disapproval71.4%
Disapprove20%
Strongly Disapprove51.4%
Graphic


Comments

Edited by Aexnidaral Seymour, Oct 27 2017, 08:22 PM.
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"... Aex, who is treated like the Europeian version of Nickelback by a lot of people here."
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Aexnidaral Seymour
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Expectations

Regardless of the ticket you intend to vote for, who do you think will win on election day?

Darcness/Sopo48.6%
Brunhilde/JayDee48.6%
Oakrugia/Dark Templar2.9%
Alan Lee/Pieter Fitzherbert-
Graphic


Comments
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"... Aex, who is treated like the Europeian version of Nickelback by a lot of people here."
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PhDre
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Can you crosstab 'push' and 'mind is made up' responses? More crosstabs in general would be awesome to see how different voting blocks are forming
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Aexnidaral Seymour
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PhDre
Oct 27 2017, 08:38 PM
Can you crosstab 'push' and 'mind is made up' responses? More crosstabs in general would be awesome to see how different voting blocks are forming
Sure, honestly I was planning on doing that today, but I got burnt out fiddling with the coding for this stuff before posting. I'll try to do it tomorrow evening or Sunday, it's something I was interested in and intended to do.
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Calvin Coolidge
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Interesting results. Since JayDee is a hot topic right now, I feel it should be pointed out that his total approval numbers here are 46%, a significant difference from the supposed 90% approval as MinComm in the EBC poll from just a few days ago. Obviously, one is asking about his approval as a Minister, and the other as a potential Vice President, but that's still rather striking. Sopo's numbers in the two polls drop from 93% to 83%, which is much less. Something to think about.

EDIT: Darc goes from 72% to 77% between the two polls, forgot to add.
Edited by Calvin Coolidge, Oct 27 2017, 09:17 PM.
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PhDre
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I looked at the raw data - there is much greater polarization around JD as a VP selection. These voters do not approve of Brun as a Presidential candidate but not as strongly as they disapprove of JD as a VP candidate. They are also potentially more enthusiastic about the election and are more decided on their candidate. Those who support JD as a candidate are still 'up for grabs' which doesn't bode well. It suggests that JD is a drag on the camapign as the most passionate about JD are a sizable minority who appear to be flocking to the opposition. However those who strongly disprove of JD also disprove of Brun which may suggest that an alternative VP choice might not make a difference - or her selection of JD is seen as a red flag for those voters.

Over all, Darc has 20 votes with 12 saying their minds are made up. Brun has 11 with 5 decisive votes.
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Brunhilde
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It seems Brunhilde wants to jump straight to the top without putting in work during the past term. She has been notably absent.


I'm sorry, but what am I meant to do? Force people to accept my offers of help? Find new ways to contribute to the MoFA other than being an ambassador and an extremely active advisor? Discover that I'm suddenly not self conscious about getting on a radio show?

I was approached to act as a neutral mediator between the Lazarus Resistance and Funkadelia's Lazarus, which I took to the executive only for that never to happen. I've actively participated at every opportunity in almost every EAAC discussion since shortly after my surgery. I've offered my help for the past three months and it hasn't been accepted. The most I've been approached by any part of the executive has been a result of having my EAAC comments leaked to a foreign government.

I suppose being an ambassador to Gameplay, a position I carried out even as I was recovering from surgery, isn't enough. Nor is trying to help Comms between the time I spent writing a 53,000 character newspaper issue that I had to wait for interview responses for because people were concerned about me including questions about the accusations leveled against the LKE and the time I spent writing a 65,000 character campaign that was accompanied by three days worth of creating flowcharts.

Admittedly, my offer to help as Training Deputy in the MoFA was accepted but given that it was an offer given less than one month after my surgery, and as a result of my extreme frustration of not being able to do anything by myself, I had to withdraw it in favor of my health.

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Brun had all but disappeared from Europeia after the last election, and it takes a lot of gall to run again without contributing anything but an article about not contributing.


I will never be afraid of striving to do what I think can help this community prosper. If running with a campaign built off a desire to put Europeia back at the forefront of foreign affairs and the Independent Sphere is gall, then I will happily seek to posses as much as I can.

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Having hosts lead people towards government opinions


That is not, and has never been, a part of my campaign.

"The Ministry of Radio will seek to establish a plan for this, selecting topics and preparing discussion points pre-show that they would then guide the participants towards an effort to vocalize the opinions of the region. "

This practice is done in every radio talk show worth a damn. Deciding topics and discussion points, which would essentially be sub-topics, is in no way leading people towards government opinions. They would be ensuring that the topics are things that we want to be discussed by guests.

The idea that I would seek to control opinions has no evidence in my campaign or campaign responses.

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Brun just seems to show up around election time in a vain quest for power.


It frustrates me to no end that someone would accuse me of running in a quest for power.

If I wanted power, I would have remained as The West Pacific's MoFA instead of resigning the position to focus on Europeia. If I wanted power, I would have responded to my loss in the last election by seeking to gain power in another region or seeking to constantly undermine the executive that defeated me in an effort to cast myself in a favorable light in comparison. If I wanted power, I would have ditched the region when I found out that I have been under suspicion of working to advance the agenda of a Rahl family that I am not, and never have been, a part of in a desire to escape unfounded accusations. Hell, I would have ditched the region when the admin team decided not to punish someone who has made repeated sexist comment directed toward me and my friends simply because he did it over voice rather than over text in an effort to not have to deal with an unpleasant person.

What I wouldn't do if I just wanted power is pour hours and hours of work into establishing flowcharts that would only be used in ensuring my ideas were better organized for when I spent over a dozen hours writing a 65,000 character campaign. I wouldn't have devoted almost 25% of my campaign towards working on establishing Europeia as the leader of the Independent Sphere and of foreign affairs that it once was. And you can be damn sure that I wouldn't have done all that I did for my campaign in the midst of organizing a funeral, finding a burial plot, and writing a eulogy for one of the three most important people in my life.

Thankfully, I haven't done any of the things I would do and have done everything I wouldn't do. However, if you do think I would do all of those things for power, I will be unrepentant in cordially advising you to engage in self-coitus.

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Lethen
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Remember when I was famous? Neither do I.

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I no longer feel welcome here so I may be gone before voting opens.

Whoever this is, please reach out to me. No one in our community should feel unwelcome.
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Darcness/Sopo 48.6%
Brunhilde/JayDee 48.6%

Well that's telling. They are dead-even on who will win; lots of pessimists in Euro :P

Also I don't know how you can say Brun all but disappeared since she lost. She's been around. Whats next, did I disappear over the last two terms? :emb:
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By the Prophetical Blessing of Nethel, Supreme Chancellor of the Republic of Europeia and the states within, Destined Overseer of His rightful yet forgotten realms of Estalcia and Old Europe and Crystal Falls, Defender of the Faith and New Jersey, and Heir to the concept of Sarcasm
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Kylia Quilor
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I'm a little surprised by these numbers.

EDIT: Brun, focusing on character count feels a little disengenous - word count is generally the accepted measure of length.
Edited by Kylia Quilor, Oct 27 2017, 10:41 PM.
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Never underestimate the power of cynicism, pessimism and negativity to prevent terrible things from happening. Only idealists try to build the future on a mountain of bodies.
Unfocused populism is just as dangerous, if not more so, to a Republic's survival as creeping authoritarianism.
Tell people how you feel, honestly and frankly. If you like someone, tell them. If you don't like them, tell them - the world would be a better place if we all knew where we stood.
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Brunhilde
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Kylia Quilor
Oct 27 2017, 10:38 PM
I'm a little surprised by these numbers.

EDIT: Brun, focusing on character count feels a little disengenous - word count is generally the accepted measure of length.
My campaign is 11,026 words and 65,160 characters while my second Breakfast With Brunhilde Issue was 9,230 words and 53,494 characters.
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GraVandius
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The crazy part is the lopsided head to head vs. the expectations. It seems the voters have a incorrect view of the electorate itself

Head to Head
 

Darcness/Sopo 57.1%
Brunhilde/JayDee 31.4%

vs.
Expectations
 
Darcness/Sopo 48.6%
Brunhilde/JayDee 48.6%

Europeian Resume

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