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ENN Poll: This Is Cat's Election To Lose
Topic Started: Aug 24 2017, 03:32 AM (538 Views)
HEM
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"ENN Poll: This Is Cat's Election To Lose"
HEM Tiberius
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Over the last 24 hours ENN surveyed 29 citizens who expressed their opinions on the current administration, the upcoming Presidential Election, and other current events in Europeia.

The poll was made up of 58.5% new members and 41.5% old members. For the purposes of this survey, citizens who joined 2015 - 2017 are considered new members, and citizens who joined 2007 - 2014 are considered old members (happy graduation day 2014!)

Our survey showed that Deputy Minister Cat leads with 62.1% of the vote, against Former Foreign Affairs Minister Brunhilde's 31% of the vote. Snowball, stands in a distant third with 3.4% of the vote. Only 3.4% describe themselves as "completely undecided." Because of this, there is virtually no tangible difference between this question, and the question that prompts undecided voters to pick a candidate with no "undecided" option.

Cat vs. Brunhilde


These results bode very poorly for the Brunhilde / Rand ticket, and are prompting ENN to change our official characterization of the race from Lean Cat to Likely Cat. We had previously changed our characterization on August 21st from Tossup to Lean Cat after the release of Monkey's Poll.

New vs. Old Members


Unsurprisingly, Brunhilde performs much better among older members than newer members. If only citizens who joined from 2007 - 2014 were allowed to vote, this would be a much closer race, though Brunhilde would still be behind with 41.70% of the vote.

There are several reasons why Brunhilde may be struggling.

First off, the current administration is incredibly popular. President Writinglegend will be leaving office with a 79.3% approval rating. And while only 3.4% strongly approve of his term, a minuscule 20.7% disapprove, and nobody strongly disapproves. Words that people associate with his administration include phrases like "Open-Minded", "Strong", "Interesting," and "Passionate". Words like "Stale" and "Slow" also showed up prolifically, and may reflect the non-reformist nature of Writinglegend's time as President, or merely the fact that he has been President for so long.

Writinglegend World Association


51.7% of voters say that President Writinglegend's spot on Cat's ticket make them more likely to vote for her. This compared to 34.5% who say it makes them less likely, and 13.8% who say it makes no difference.

In contrast, Rand appears to be doing the opposite for Brunhilde. 55.2% of respondents say that his presence on the ticket makes them less likely to vote for her, compared to 24.1% who say "more likely" and 20.7% who say "no impact."

Also potentially harming Brunhilde, is her current title of Vice Chancellor. Despite several high profile defenses, some voters still have significant concerns as to Brunhilde running for President from the Chancellery. While 51.7% of respondents said they were not concerned, and the position would have no impact on their vote, the rest of the region had varying degrees of concern. 20.7% of respondents characterized their concern as "extreme" and said it definitely had influence on their vote, with 13.8% apiece saying that they "mildly" or "slightly" concerned.

That being said, the vast majority of the region expresses that they have either "regained" or "continued" support in the Chancellery.

Chancellery Support


When looking region-wide, most people are fairly optimistic, saying that we are on the right track:

Direction of Region


These numbers are more-or-less the same as when ENN asked the same question in March 2017.

One question from March 2017 that has changed a lot, however, is the question about the work ethic required of older members to achieve governmental office:

How Hard Do Older Members Have to Work For Jobs?


In the last five months, public perception has shifted drastically toward the idea that older members have a much easier ride, and that breaking through as a newer member is extremely difficult.

When looking at policy issues independently from candidates (at least in theory), members have generally favorable views of both reviving the internship program and EuroWorks.

Internship program and EuroWorks


An issue that was much more divisive, however, was the matter of withdrawing from CAIN.

CAIN


A small majority of 55.2% believe that it is "probably" or "definitely" time to leave the Europeia-led coalition vs. 41.3% of the region who believe that we "probably" or "definitely" should stay. Regardless of what the next President choses to do, they will likely have detractors who oppose their position on this particular issue.

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HEM
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Rach
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There are certain aspects of Brunhilde's campaign that I really like, but I find her platform as a whole to be surprisingly weak despite the apparent long term planning and the Chancellery connections to also be a bit of a turnoff.
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Which statement best characterizes your view? (August 2017)

Older members expect to be handed political positions without putting in the work: 24.1% (+1.2%)
Older members work for political positions, but not as hard as newer members have to: 69% (+20.4%)
Older members work just as hard for political positions as newer members: 6.9% (-21.7%)

This is honestly the most important part of the poll

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Aexnidaral Seymour
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Well, Cat, you better watch out for those voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin who are "economically anxious" :ph43r:
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Altmoras
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It's interesting to see the difference in the "floors" between candidates, and by "floor" I mean respondents who said they were "strongly behind" a particular candidate. Cat's floor is 2/3rds of her support, compared to Brun's which is the reverse, and Snowball's which doesn't exist.

CAIN while divisive, doesn't seem to be the big issue in the minds of the voters either given that a majority support leaving, yet a majority also supports the candidate who wants to stay in.

Overall I'm really surprised how these polls have been turning out, I suppose polling will always be a tad inaccurate, but I had this election pegged as a Brun 60/40 in shortly after Cat's campaign was released. I guess I didn't see the same things as the typical Europeian :P

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Skizzy Grey
Aug 23 2017, 12:50 AM
Unlike your home region, Europeia is not hell-bent on subverting and destroying other regional communities. We are an open society. You are taking advantage of that openness to try to influence our elections for the benefit of your home region, which is committed to our destruction. Perhaps our laws allow you to do this (though as a Senator, I'll be looking into changing that), but they don't require me to be nice to you while you're doing it, you little piece of shit.
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Kylia Quilor
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My choice was a real gun to my head one, and if I believed in abstention, I'd be abstaining from this election completely, but I believe that one must always vote for the best of the available options in elections, rather than just sit out.
The Rt. Hon. Commodore Kylia Quilor, Dux Emeritus, Legatus, Quartius, Primus Pilus, Praefectus Vigilum Noctu, ERN
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PhDre
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That Chancellery is an issue to some voters seems... unreasonable. The Boogeyman has been successfully created. FTR I'm probably a toss up this election, but Brun's position in the Chancellery should have no impact on voters.
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Kylia Quilor
Aug 24 2017, 11:31 AM
My choice was a real gun to my head one, and if I believed in abstention, I'd be abstaining from this election completely, but I believe that one must always vote for the best of the available options in elections, rather than just sit out.

I'm similarly torn, but like you, I'll make a call one way or the other.
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Monkey
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this was a fun poll, i enjoyed seeing the results
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Le Libertie
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Very interesting poll.

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Kylia Quilor
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PhDre
Aug 24 2017, 03:10 PM
That Chancellery is an issue to some voters seems... unreasonable. The Boogeyman has been successfully created. FTR I'm probably a toss up this election, but Brun's position in the Chancellery should have no impact on voters.
I have to agree. The can of worms Vert opened and... certain individuals then ripped the lid right off of has now started to take root in the region.
The Rt. Hon. Commodore Kylia Quilor, Dux Emeritus, Legatus, Quartius, Primus Pilus, Praefectus Vigilum Noctu, ERN
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I. Am. Not. A. Nice. Person.
Never underestimate the power of cynicism, pessimism and negativity to prevent terrible things from happening. Only idealists try to build the future on a mountain of bodies.
Unfocused populism is just as dangerous, if not more so, to a Republic's survival as creeping authoritarianism.
Tell people how you feel, honestly and frankly. If you like someone, tell them. If you don't like them, tell them - the world would be a better place if we all knew where we stood.
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Which statement best characterizes your view? (August 2017)

Older members expect to be handed political positions without putting in the work: 24.1% (+1.2%)
Older members work for political positions, but not as hard as newer members have to: 69% (+20.4%)
Older members work just as hard for political positions as newer members: 6.9% (-21.7%)

I'm wondering if this large change is due to the uproar of Possibly This's upset over Skizzy back then and a greater number of older members being up in arms over that issue. Now that things have returned to normal, I think less hysteria is the reason for that drop in the final category.

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PhDre
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GraVandius
Aug 25 2017, 09:24 PM
Quote:
 
Which statement best characterizes your view? (August 2017)

Older members expect to be handed political positions without putting in the work: 24.1% (+1.2%)
Older members work for political positions, but not as hard as newer members have to: 69% (+20.4%)
Older members work just as hard for political positions as newer members: 6.9% (-21.7%)

I'm wondering if this large change is due to the uproar of Possibly This's upset over Skizzy back then and a greater number of older members being up in arms over that issue. Now that things have returned to normal, I think less hysteria is the reason for that drop in the final category.
PT worked hard for his Senatorship. By which I mean he ran 9+ times. That election wasn't an example of young players working hard particularly for a position because PT did nothing of value legislatively besides run every election. It was definitely a referendum on experienced and qualified older members expecting that new / younger citizens value their previous contributions without continued visible service. It did not help that skizzy does not use discord which we see time and again is a political edge.
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PhDre
Aug 25 2017, 11:11 PM
GraVandius
Aug 25 2017, 09:24 PM
Quote:
 
Which statement best characterizes your view? (August 2017)

Older members expect to be handed political positions without putting in the work: 24.1% (+1.2%)
Older members work for political positions, but not as hard as newer members have to: 69% (+20.4%)
Older members work just as hard for political positions as newer members: 6.9% (-21.7%)

I'm wondering if this large change is due to the uproar of Possibly This's upset over Skizzy back then and a greater number of older members being up in arms over that issue. Now that things have returned to normal, I think less hysteria is the reason for that drop in the final category.
PT worked hard for his Senatorship. By which I mean he ran 9+ times. That election wasn't an example of young players working hard particularly for a position because PT did nothing of value legislatively besides run every election. It was definitely a referendum on experienced and qualified older members expecting that new / younger citizens value their previous contributions without continued visible service. It did not help that skizzy does not use discord which we see time and again is a political edge.
Discord is becoming more and more the face of Europeia

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