| Welcome to Europeia! So what the heck is Europeia anyways? Can I join? So, I came here representing another region? I do not want to become a citizen. Where should I go? What offices are there for people to be elected into? What is there for me to do in Europeia? That answers most of my immediate questions. What if I have any more? |
| ENN Election Chat — Polls & Horserace; Chat #2 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Topic Started: Aug 22 2017, 01:07 AM (176 Views) | ||
| HEM | Aug 22 2017, 01:07 AM Post #1 | |
|
former substitute senator to aexnidaral seymour
![]()
|
![]() "ENN Election Chat — Polls & Horserace" Welcome to ENN's Political Chat, where we talk about the nitty-gritty issues that impact Europeia. This chat has been lightly edited for clarity. HEM: (ENN Publisher) Hello everyone! Today we were going to discuss the Domestic portions of the candidates' agendas, but with the FIRST poll of the election season being posted, we decided to take a break from policy and chat about horserace. Okay, so today Monkey, in collaboration with the Euro Weekly, published the first poll of the election season. We are here to discuss it, and talk about what it means for this race—if anything. Aexnidaral: (WA Delegate) Hmmm... it had some interesting results. If I recall correctly at the beginning of the poll, as it was being pushed out, someone commented that it didn't require you to answer the question re: who would you vote for. I wish that they pushed one more page of required questions specifically asking a "If you had to vote today, who would you vote for" w/o the "undecided" option to push a less neutral result. It's hard to extrapolate much besides "Cat/WL seem to be slightly ahead." with these results, but like we saw with the poll from the Lense not every poll captures a representative demographic. HEM: Yeah, one thing that struck me from question #1 is that younger members are definitely over-represented in the poll. Monkey: (Poll Creator) I wasn't sure at first if I wanted to just straight up ask who people are voting for, but it does look like that everyone took that poll answered that question, although removing the unsure opinion may have been a good choice. Calvin Coolidge: (Minister of Radio) The sample size of 23 is a semi-reasonable look into the population, I'd say, but yeah, obviously not ironclad. The clear takeaway is that Cat is in a good position, and Brun is in less of a good position. Also, there are enough undecideds to keep things interesting, something that could push both candidates to come out swinging in the debate, if there is one. Aexnidaral Yeah, the other thing I'd extrapolate from it, possibly, is that Cat's "base" seems to be more excited than Brun's does. Insofar as most people taking the poll are likely the more active Europeians who will show up to vote on election day. Darcness: (Minister of Foreign Affairs) If you compare those 23 respondents to other Presidential polling, that's actually a solid number. I expected it to be lower, considering the overall activity of the region lately. Monkey: For one of my questions I had, I asked "Why not vote for the other ticket?". For that question I got 15 responses, and although some were anonymous, many of the answers explicitly criticized Brun's ticket, which I thought was interesting. Darcness: I agree with Aex that Cat's numbers here definitely show a more 'energized base', but we've seen time and again how many citizens vote compared to participate in these polls. The election is, by no means, over.(edited) Aexnidaral: Yeah, exactly. The good thing about having an energized base is you don't have to worry about, or spend time on, getting them out to vote; it starts you out with an easier formula to get to 50%+1, but the real question is how the rest of Europeia-- those who show up to vote but don't participate much on the forums-- will vote. Darcness: ... and whether or not this gets Brun supporters to suddenly up their game. HEM: One thing worth mentioning. I crunched the numbers from the raw results excel sheet, and the average join date of a Brunhilde supporter is 2013, while the average join date of a Cat supporter is 2014.5. So there may be something to the idea of, "Brunhilde's supporters are older members who didn't take the poll." Darcness: Maybe, but 2013 compared to 2014.5 isn't that much of a difference, HEM. HEM: Yeah it's not a very comforting distinction. Calvin Coolidge: Could be, since we usually see younger members active in polls, but that difference is rather slight. HEM: Interesting, the "undecided" voters are the oldest voters of all, with an average join date of 2012.4 Calvin Coolidge: That perception does tend to exist, though, doesn't it? I find that the perception of older voters being behind the "FA candidate" is tried and true trope at this point. Aexnidaral: That doesn't surprise me. Cat and Brun are both active on Discord a lot, but Cat is just a highly social person so I think her huge presence on Discord seemingly everywhere on gods green earth helps her with newer members who are more in-tune w/ Discord Culture. Calvin Coolidge: To piggyback off my point, FA was not really mentioned in the issues that voters cared about this election, and least in this poll. Aexnidaral: That's true, FA and Navy come up, I think, only once each in the #6 responses. Darcness: One conclusion that this data points us to is that there is no hands-down winner in FA. Monkey: FA/Navy/CAIN came up about 11 times within the 23 responses I got, however a lot of answers I got also suggested integration being important(edited) Darcness: If there were, those 'older' respondents would be leaning toward said candidate, and would be calling out 'FA' as a major factor in their vote. Calvin Coolidge: Which is interesting, as one would think Brun would have gone into this as the FA heavyweight, but Cat has narrowed the gap in that area. Aexnidaral: Yeah, I agree with Calvin's assertion. Comparatively, Brun/Rand relies mostly on Brun, whereas Cat/WL has a good grasp of issues across both parts of the ticket (re: CAIN, FA, Navy, etc.) Darcness: Brunhilde's crowning FA achievement is struggling horribly, which damages her standing in that arena as well. HEM: Well, I think it's odd because the consensus on yesterday's panel seemed to be that the FA sections of the platform either favored Cat or were a wash, while the Interior portions (particularly in regards to EuroWorks) were Brunhilde's stronger points. It's really the opposite of what someone would expect. Aexnidaral: I personally wouldn't call EuroWorks one of Brun's stronger points of her platform. HEM: If you're opposed to the idea, you wouldn't. But it is certainly a highlight. Darcness: I think the idea that Brun should be the FA heavyweight is a bit too much of a surface assumption. Cat also has Writinglegend on her ticket, and both of them have experience and success in that area. Brunhilde is carrying the FA weight of her ticket all by herself. HEM: Pivoting a bit, how does this poll bode for the dark-horse candidates in the race? Besides "not great" ? Darcness: It's one vote, and that one vote was most likely Snowball. Aexnidaral: It depends, I think at this point the only relevant question for a "dark horse" candidate is "can I pull enough support to force a runoff?" Calvin Coolidge: With the amount of undecideds we see, it's possible we could see some of them never deciding and tossing a vote to Leo or Snowball, and maybe forcing a runoff, but I feel like that is not much of a factor. Monkey: I believe Leo dropped out of the race...I think? Darcness: I think 'not great' would imply that there was hope before. There's no change in expectation from this result. I was glad to see that Snowball's platform has improved dramatically over previous attempts, but this result is exactly what I expected. Aexnidaral: Yes, just checked standing, only Snowball's ticket remains. HEM: Oh yeah, Leo did quietly drop out of the race. Calvin Coolidge: So it would seem. Darcness: Or 'Fox' as he calls himself now. HEM: I dunno, I think there's definitely some populist angst in the newer member ranks, but I'm not sure Snowball is the person to be able to consolidate it. Aexnidaral: I definitely think Snowball/Aditya will get some sincere votes, but some will definitely be troll votes from middling aged members. I don't think they've got a real shot at winning, but their campaign seems sincere enough so I don't want to knock them. Calvin Coolidge: I guess this poll gives them some hope that they could be a factor, if things go to a runoff, but not much more hope than before this poll. Aexnidaral: I wonder if Snowball/Aditya would get more votes if one of the other candidates was pulling away with the race fairly safely above 50%+1 That said, to pivot back to Interior stuff (which it feels like is where the conversation was headed, somehwat) who do we think is the more "Interior"-strong ticket? Well, sub interior for "domestic" HEM: I think EuroWorks is a strong program idea, but the rest of Brunhilde's Interior section was a mess. Calvin Coolidge: I think that Cat and WL have a lot more leadership experience in domestic affairs than either Brun or Rand, and it shows in their platform HEM: I think Cat's Interior section is better than Brunhilde's, but I don't think it's anything to write home about. Aexnidaral: Yeah, I would agree with that assertion, Calvin, & the one HEM made previously. If you don't like EuroWorks, you're not going to like much of the domestic policy section (esp Interior). I would say that Rand is more of a "domestic" policy type to Brun's FA policy knowledge, but Rand had maybe one-or-so stand out terms in Interior, but nothing really to write home about, either. His Culture term certainly wasn't great. I would say that Cat/WL's domestic policy sections feel more... loved? I don't know how to phrase it. Darcness: EuroWorks specifically has the potential to be a good idea, but I have some reservations about it with Rand at the helm. Maybe, since it seems something he's passionate about, he'll be better at it than he has been at other dometic projects lately. HEM: I find it really ironic that the President who killed the internship program, and is running against someone who helped build it, is now running on a ticket where it is a centerpiece policy. Aexnidaral: I guess it really proves the point that Cat is her own woman. HEM: Or that ticket heard about EuroWorks and decided they needed to come up with something else bold at the 11th hour.  Calvin Coolidge: Cat's a fairly new citizen, was she an intern when that was rolled out the first time? I forget when that was launched Aexnidaral: I'm not sure, I remember Cat used to be Malvacka and was mostly engaged in the Navy until she renamed to Cat sometime around then; though I could be entirely wrong. Calvin Coolidge: Could be that she was influenced by it firsthand, but that's just a guess. Aexnidaral: But more to the point, there was a comment in Monkey's poll that said something to the effect that Cat was basically just another WL Presidency, and that they thought the hope was for her to resign so he could become President again (or some nonsense); I think that highlight of contrasting top-ticket differential shows that this is very much Cat's campaign. HEM: I think we've strayed off the poll a little bit. To bring us home, I'm hoping everyone can answer the following questions: (1) If you're Brunhilde, what are you happy about right now? (2) If you're Brunhilde, what's keeping you up at night? (3) If you're Cat, what are you happy about right now? (4) And if you're Cat, what's keeping you up at night? Aexnidaral: If I'm Brunhilde I'd look at a few things and be pretty happy. Cat's margin in this poll isn't 60%+. And, even if it was, I'd look at the poll done in the Lens recently and take solace that polls aren't always accurate predictors. I also look at the fact that there's 25~ respondents and realize there's going to be between 65 and 90 voters. What would keep me up at night is that my base seems to be less energized and more compartmentalized. That isn't an accurate predictor of anything, by any means, but it can mean that she'll have to work extra hard trying to get out people to vote for her. If you're Cat you're happy that your base seems to be more energized. You're worried that something could happen that could shift support late in the race, or that late-deciding voters go to Brun overwhelmingly when they go to cast their votes. He Who Gets Comey-ed First, Loses. Or She, I guess in this case. Calvin Coolidge: 1. If you're Brun, you're happy that there is still a fair amount of undecided voters,and that no candidate is running away with the race yet 2. If you're Brun you are kept up at night because over 50% of a decent sample size just selected your opponent, and your platform is generating a lot more backlash than your opponent's, with less to show for it in terms of support 3. If you're Cat, you're happy this poll showed you ahead and that you've managed to avoid any controversies so far 4. If you're Cat you're worried that despite things working in your favor, you've yet to put this thing out of reach, and that if things tighten you could be looking at a runoff Darcness: 1. Brunhilde is a savvy player. This poll might make Cat supporters a bit more lax, and that could be the opening she needs to make a difference. Attempting to appear as the 'non-establishment' candidate has resonated with some voters, and this poll continues to paint her in such a light. 2. FA, where Brun expected to be a powerhouse, isn't scoring points with the electorate. Domestic policy is wrapped up in a single idea that is polarizing. There's a fair amount to worry about here. 3. The numbers look good, representative or not. The conspiracy theorist's comment actually helps Cat here, because it makes Brun supporters (or, more specifically anti-Cat voters) look unhinged. 4. With Brun appearing as an underdog based on these numbers, sympathy might slide her way, which can be a body-blow at this point. Reminding voters of platform differences is going to be vital. HEM: 1. If you're Brun, you're happy that this poll's sampling was wayy off the actual composition of the region. You're also happy that you've taken your licks early, and there's still time to stand out before the election. 2. BUT, in a race that people have assumed would be very, very close, you're probably behind. Sampling is definitely off here, but if you're 10%+ behind on any random sample of 23 people, that's not great. 3. If you're Cat, you are definitely happy that you are ahead in this poll and seem to have a lock on the most enthusiastic voters. 4. BUT, you're always aware that a huge source of your support is with people who like you socially and have interacted with you in EuroChat. You might be worried that your ceiling might be lower here, because anyone who is predisposed to vote for you (perhaps because they consider you a personal friend) already supporters you. Check back into ENN Tomorrow, August 22nd, for the Domestic Policy portion of the chat! |
|
|
HEM Board Owner | http://s6.zetaboards.com/Europeia Discord Owner | Europeia's Server | ||
| on | Quote | |
| Snowball | Aug 22 2017, 03:14 AM Post #2 | |
![]()
|
For the record, I voted for the person I wanted to win after me. So someone actually voted for me. Good panel though |
|
| ||
| off | Quote | |
| Le Libertie | Aug 22 2017, 04:04 AM Post #3 | |
|
Back to business
![]()
|
I really wish I was in this interview. Oh well. | |
| ||
| off | Quote | |
| Altmoras | Aug 22 2017, 05:49 AM Post #4 | |
|
Hard to lock up.
![]()
|
Neat. I actually read the whole thing too.
Edited by Altmoras, Aug 22 2017, 05:50 AM.
|
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
| ||
| off | Quote | |
| Writinglegend | Aug 22 2017, 10:20 AM Post #5 | |
|
Sleepy Gleg.
![]()
|
Cool discussion. | |
|
Click Me!
| ||
| off | Quote | |
| hyanygo | Aug 22 2017, 09:29 PM Post #6 | |
![]()
|
Christ. That had me in stitches. |
|
| off | Quote | |
| HEM | Aug 23 2017, 01:39 AM Post #7 | |
|
former substitute senator to aexnidaral seymour
![]()
|
Glad you all enjoyed!
|
|
|
HEM Board Owner | http://s6.zetaboards.com/Europeia Discord Owner | Europeia's Server | ||
| on | Quote | |
| Aditya Republic | Aug 23 2017, 12:26 PM Post #8 | |
|
India's Ambassador to Europeia
![]()
|
Nocet | |
|
NS Nations Awards My newspaper About me India | ||
| off | Quote | |
| 1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous) | ||
| « Previous Topic · E-News Network · Next Topic » |

.

















-GraVandius


































[/center]
