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| Florida's Choice; A Guide to 2018 in the Sunshine State from a Party Hack | ||
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| Topic Started: Aug 15 2017, 04:30 PM (269 Views) | ||
| Aexnidaral Seymour | Aug 15 2017, 04:30 PM Post #1 | |
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Somebody's got to keep you entertained.
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Hi folks! Over the course of the next year I'll slowly be updating this and writing along with the progress of the primary and general election in my State. I'll be releasing my first big post later today. If you have questions about politics in the sunshine state feel free to ask! |
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![]() ![]() ![]() Family, Resume, and Awards "... Aex, who is treated like the Europeian version of Nickelback by a lot of people here."
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| Monkey | Aug 15 2017, 04:50 PM Post #2 | |
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:D
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i have some questions, 1. what gives you the right 2. who do you think you are 3. just who do you think you are 4. why are you the way you are 5. how dare you edit: i just realized that questions 2 and 3 are the same but i would still like to hear the answers to both please edit: added a question Edited by Monkey, Aug 15 2017, 04:53 PM.
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Help I don't know what i'm doing awards I love bragging about myself
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| Rach | Aug 15 2017, 04:53 PM Post #3 | |
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At Least 5% Sugar
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6. Did the Chancellery give you permission to do this? | |
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♥ Love and Kindness are never wasted ♥ The 2011 President of the Year Queen of Balder Unofficial Navy Girl | ||
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| United Vietussia | Aug 15 2017, 04:59 PM Post #4 | |
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You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life.
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Here's what the people really wanna know. | |
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| Aexnidaral Seymour | Aug 15 2017, 06:20 PM Post #5 | |
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Somebody's got to keep you entertained.
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Post #1: Florida Democrats Choose Electability, not Ideology Dixiecrats' Protest Votes
Florida is a strange place. It's like America's version of Narnia, if Narnia was actually just hell. Florida Democrats are even more interesting people. They're cats, but when you try to herd them they don't show up to vote. The first thing I want to talk about in my first post in this series is about the Panhandle's Paradox. You see, the Panhandle and lots of mid-north Florida is filled with registered Democrats who vote in the primary and the general election, but... never for genuine candidates. Why is that? It's simple-- one word: Dixiecrats. Mid-North through the Pan Handle of Florida tends to be filled with old agrarian county folk Democrats. Lots of them hard good, hard working people who do what they can to put food on their family's table; but some of them are the stereotype of trashy redneck living in a trailer trying to take away the civil rights of them queers and blacks. These are the folks who vote for Liberals in the Primary, and Conservative Republicans in a General Election. They are members of the Democratic Party of yesteryear, the Dixiecrats of the South. I listed a few state-wide elections above for reference. Largely, you'll notice that one candidate gets between 60 to high 70 percent support. This is because the winning candidate in the Primary tends to bank votes from mid-to-large areas of Florida in the Primary. However, the losing "challenger" candidates tend to get south of 35% for opposite reasons: many of their inherent base voters come from small Counties where older Democrats vote for them as a protest against the Candidate they think will make it to the General that they won't vote for. I am not discounting every one of their votes being received from this, as you can see that Sanders' average is a little higher than a normal challenger candidate is (comparatively) because he won over lots of party faithful at a better rate than most "challenger" candidates. Here's a map of Florida colored by-County depending on who they voted for on average over the last 5 statewide primaries. Light blue = challenger Candidate, Dark blue = establishment candidate. ![]() And here's a map of Florida colored by-County depending on who they voted for averaged over the past few general elections. Red = Republican, Blue = Dem, Purple = close/swing ![]() The first thing you'll notice is there's a lot of overlap between the red in one map and the blues in another. Yes! That's true. Florida, like the United States at large, has a few population center Counties and many, many small-to-medium counties that added up. And, much like in the greater US, our larger counties tend to be more diverse. Our fastest growing counties are places that are a) becoming less white and b) voting less Republican. This is the trend that brought Orange County to be solidly Democratic. Believe it or not, before 2008 Orange County was a swing county! Believe it or not, Democratic registration in many of the "red" counties outnumbers Republicans by a few percent. In many of these areas the local politics-- County Commission, City Council, etc. are dominated by Democratic politicians. And often times the turnout for local/county races are higher than Presidential or Gubernatorial turnout. It's an incredible phenomenon that I'm sure is also true of many former Confederate states with long histories of having Democrats in Office. Democrats who are... not anywhere ideologically similar to the mainstream of today's Party. Dixiecrats from the Panhandle and Central-North Florida vote Republican, and lodge their protest with the Democratic party by voting for a candidate contrary to their actual values to make a point. So, going into 2018 what can we expect out of our Gubernatorial and Senatorial primaries? Well, truly, who knows. This past election has taught me that the unthinkable is possible, even if it shouldn't be. However, looking at candidates on both sides of the aisle it's going to be a fistfight for the finish line. Republicans will likely run incumbent Voldemort and Dark Lord impersonator against the non-racist Keebler Elf incumbent Senator Bill Nelson; and for Governor? Who knows. Republicans are running every candidate under the sun. From Moderate State Senator Jack Latvala to failed candidates of 2016 to incumbent Commissioner of Agriculture Adam Putnam, with even more possibilities to come. And for Democrats? Just the same. Two candidates from North Florida: one liberal mayor, the other a moderate Congresswoman who upset a conservative in 2014. The others? Two rich guys: one who spent millions getting Medical marijuana passed and who has his face on so many billboards he's Florida's Santa, and the other a young entrepreneur. Ultimately, while I have no earthly clue what Republican will win, I'm fairly confident saying Gwen Graham will win. If John Morgan runs I'd wager it'd be neck and neck between him and Gwen, but ultimately because of the dynamics I've explained earlier, I think the turnout will be similar: establishment [Gwen] candidate wins carrying population centers + medium-large counties, challenger [Gillum] candidate wins on his home turf + central north + panhandle. Just please, God, make sure Rick Scott doesn't beat Bill Nelson. The dude was an Astronaut!
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![]() ![]() ![]() Family, Resume, and Awards "... Aex, who is treated like the Europeian version of Nickelback by a lot of people here."
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| Aexnidaral Seymour | Aug 15 2017, 06:48 PM Post #6 | |
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Somebody's got to keep you entertained.
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lol Nothing, I'm just a Floridian who has worked in politics (and has been both right and wrong) C Grade Party Hack Just a C Grade Party Hack Probably shitty genetics.
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![]() ![]() ![]() Family, Resume, and Awards "... Aex, who is treated like the Europeian version of Nickelback by a lot of people here."
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| Monkey | Aug 15 2017, 06:51 PM Post #7 | |
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:D
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thanks for these informative answers. u have my support. good luck | |
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Help I don't know what i'm doing awards I love bragging about myself
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| Snowball | Aug 15 2017, 08:31 PM Post #8 | |
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Oh... Rumor has it in Tallahassee that Scott is gearing up for a senate run. He has as much said so at private dinners, one which my dad was at because of his job. | |
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| Aexnidaral Seymour | Aug 15 2017, 09:11 PM Post #9 | |
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Somebody's got to keep you entertained.
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Thanks?
Yeah, it seems like he's gearing up for a Sen run against Nelson. I certainly hope not, but... |
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![]() ![]() ![]() Family, Resume, and Awards "... Aex, who is treated like the Europeian version of Nickelback by a lot of people here."
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| Snowball | Aug 16 2017, 04:29 AM Post #10 | |
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Let us pray |
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| Izzy | Aug 16 2017, 09:07 AM Post #11 | |
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You and your digital blackface.
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| Aexnidaral Seymour | Aug 16 2017, 05:50 PM Post #12 | |
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Somebody's got to keep you entertained.
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What? | |
![]() ![]() ![]() Family, Resume, and Awards "... Aex, who is treated like the Europeian version of Nickelback by a lot of people here."
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| Aexnidaral Seymour | Aug 16 2017, 07:16 PM Post #13 | |
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Somebody's got to keep you entertained.
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Speaking of... Latvala just did see pretty awful verbal gymnastics to engage in some "both side-ism" "Asked whether the neo-Nazis were 100 percent to blame, Latvala said: “I wasn’t there. I condemn all violence of people that are protesting. If people are peacefully exercising their rights — whether they be white supremacists or whether they be Black Lives Matter folks — they have a right to demonstrate without having a mob attack them. ... When asked to clarify whether he was equating Black Lives Matter and neo-Nazis, Latvala said: "I said whoever it might be that's out there protesting." Is that a yes or a no? "I said whoever is out there protesting, and I used a couple — I'm not supporting Nazis," he replied, walking away from reporters." whomp whomp |
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![]() ![]() ![]() Family, Resume, and Awards "... Aex, who is treated like the Europeian version of Nickelback by a lot of people here."
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| Writinglegend | Aug 17 2017, 03:06 AM Post #14 | |
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Sleepy Gleg.
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lol rick scott | |
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Click Me!
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| Rach | Aug 17 2017, 01:22 PM Post #15 | |
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At Least 5% Sugar
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I don't get how the far left can be equated with the far right in terms of violence in the USA. The far right is might larger and much more violent! Oklahoma City Bombing, Dylan Roof and even at this event plowing a car through a crowd. I find it fucking scary that it's so significant in the US that Republicans are willing to play footsies with them. | |
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♥ Love and Kindness are never wasted ♥ The 2011 President of the Year Queen of Balder Unofficial Navy Girl | ||
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