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Region Divided On Senate; Aexnidaral Poised To Win Goldenblock; ENN Breaking News
Topic Started: Jan 14 2017, 09:00 PM (809 Views)
HEM
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"Region Divided On Senate; Aexnidaral Poised To Win Goldenblock"
Written by HEM
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In a flash poll lasting less than 24 hours, The E-News Network polled 35 citizens of Europeia about their views on the Senate, the upcoming Presidential race, and the administration of Discord.

This poll was launched at a relatively divisive period in Europeia history, with citizens complaining of old vs. new divides — though many have also pointed out that these divides go beyond just the "age" of citizens.


The Senate

In terms of the Senate, the region is almost divided in half. 51.4% of the region either approves or strongly approves of the current work of the Senate — the vast majority merely "approving." On the other hand, 48.6% of the region disapproves or strongly disapproves of the Senate's work. While only 5.7% of the region strongly approves of the Senate, 22.9% strongly disapprove.

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So when the issue turns to recall, the results are very unsurprising. Those who approve of the work of the Senate (51.4%) either lean against recall, or are strongly against recall. Those who disapprove of the Senate (48.6%) either lean toward recall, or are strongly for recall. The numbers translate over perfectly.

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However, the advantage those against recall have, is in the sheer strength of their support.

That is to say, roughly the same number of people "lean toward recall" as are "absolutely against recall." 31.4% of the population seems fairly immovable in their opposition to recall while only 14.3% of people have the same level of fervor for removing the Senate.

While the top-sheet result shows an extremely close referendum on the Senate's fate, opponents of recall have a much stronger base than those who might seek to force new elections.

ENN Commentator Leo Drakan added, "So, glancing at this, Europeia is rather torn between approval of the senate and not approving. This could be for many reasons such as disapproval of the EPP, disapproval of the inactivity and drama."

While Cpt. Carrot commented that the polls shows an "interesting levels of approval, given the vocal criticism of the activity from the senate and some of the negative predictions early on. Quite a divide in opinion."

"It's interesting to see those who would lead either direction but aren't strongly supporting either side. Recall or don't recall. The region simply doesn't know what to think of the senate yet, they haven't done anything too good or too bad," Minister of Radio Cat added on the results.


Presidential Elections

With only weeks until the start of Presidential campaigning, Aexnidaral Seymour is citizen to beat. It has been the worst kept secret in Europeia that Aexnidaral has aspirations to succeed his boss, and the groundwork he has set for his bid appears to have paid off.

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When pit against Trinnien, Aexnidaral has a 20 point lead against the former President. Trinnien has become more of a polarizing figure in Europeia lately, becoming a leading face for the "old guard" even though he is relatively new to the region himself.

"I'm not too surprised by the results. After Trinn's previous term as president I can see why they would lean towards Aex more." Cat told ENN.


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Minister of Interior Calvin Coolidge fares even worse, with Aexnidaral retaining his 45.7% "strong" support and peeling away some "leaners."

ENN Commentator Leo Drakan commented on how unsurprising he thought the results were: "Well, this isn't shocking either. After seeing how Calvin has been acting as of late with his senate campaign, it is not shocking they would go with Aex :/"


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Rising star Pichtonia attracts a reasonable amount of support from Europeians, but surprisingly, fares only a little worse than the other older names.


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The next two are potential darkhorse candidates — Rach and HEM — but have a very similar effect on the polling. They manage to scuttle much of Aex's base out of the "strongly" position and toward the "lean" position. The question would be whether either of them could grab those voters over the course of a campaign:


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Grand Admiral Kraketopia, while the winner of numerous past Presidential campaigns, has been less active this term and it shows in his numbers:


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A three-way race, predictably, pushes much of Aexnidaral's supporters into the "lean" category, but he remains the overwhelming favorite.


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The only person to come out ahead of Aexnidaral is current President Writinglegend. Writinglegend is actively not expected to seek another term, but has not formally announced his intentions.


Clearly, before the Presidential race even begins, Aexnidaral is out in front. ENN's Political Panel talked about this issue:

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Hyanygo: "Aex's presidency is a conclusion that at least 5 old timers have had to just deal with. I don't think he's done himself any favours though by poor performance after poor performance. Older members can cut through the reality distortion field and see a poor presidency a mile off. Much like every other poor presidency has been easily, easily, predicted by experienced members."

Cpt. Carrot: "Aex has put a great deal of energy into his interactions within in the region, whereas Calvin is more reserved and Trinn frequently comes across as stern and unapproachable. While Calvin and Trinn are former Presidents, their terms didn't end on high notes."

Hyanygo: Yes, interactions with people. He hasn't been particularly stellar in the business of government. And @CptCarrot 's comments are exactly the confusion that older members (~5) are concerned about.

Confusing mere social contact with project delivery.

It seems his distortion field works, even when its pointed out! His social contact is a necessary but not sufficient virtue for the Presidency.

Cpt. Carrot: "Yes and I have a fair few experiences with experienced members who weren't particularly good at delivering yet got praised for what they did. social interaction and personal relations have always played a role. I'm not commenting on whether they are right or wrong I'm simply saying they exist here, it's a factor in the results on the poll."

Hyanygo: "There appears to be ~12 or so people that do not want Aex.
Across the board. I don't think in these X vs Aex match ups you have a candidate that is so convincing that it makes the respondent switch from the non-Aex camp to the Aex camp.

There just appears to be re-distribution within each camp at each matchup. But I need to see the raw data for that."

HEM: "I think Rach and I push quite a few people out of the "strongly" into the "lean" Aex position, which is interesting. Would those people vote for either of us ultimately? I dunno."

Hyanygo: "I don't really think we should break it down that finely.This means that most people have quite made up their mind which is a massive, massive, disappointment for election season. The premier event is going to be boring AF."

Cpt. Carrot: "It would be nice to have a hotly contested election, we haven't had a good race in quite a while."

Hyanygo: "We used to rely on the presidential election to push forward the urgent and longstanding debates about our region. Now we're destined to have a coronation with little hope of convincing either side to switch entirely.

And this is a result of the saccarachine politics, a rot, that has infected Europeian discourse. I don't think I've seen so much latin on the forum in the form of 'Wahhhhh someone someone something ad homenim'.

It'll be interesting to see Aex's responses to my comments as another experienced member recently put it to me: 'Aex will ultimately just take any critique as an attack'."

Leo Drakan: "I personally do not see that. He is quite a calm person and he can take critique from what I have seen."

Hyanygo: "He's got posts that he thinks he's made privately but are available for some reason publically, on the forums which illustrate otherwise."

Cpt. Carrot: "Put this forth as a social member as someone whose existence is mainly getting to know people. Someone reacting pettily to criticism is kind of a misleading variable, half of the people I've chatted to, including lauded members, have spouted some of the worst reactions to slight criticism I have seen.

We are at a conflux of egos and groups. distortion fields exist for everyone. we are all human... most of us anyway. Aex does have an issue with reacting to negative comments, I've been at loggerheads with him on multiple occassions. He does however try to curtail those from time to time, certainly he has done a lot of maturing in regards to that, I'd still like to see more.

However my neutrality in social circles has let me see some extraordinary backbiting and venom in back rooms. I have been laughing this whole term from the sheer volume of hypocrisy that most members that I have contact with have displayed. no one is infallible. I am under no illusion that anyone is immune from it. I will never say that personal relationships taking precedence over the good of the region is acceptable, people have to accept that if it's wrong for one group it's wrong for them too."



Discord + Political Affiliation

When asking about Discord, the region is likewise divided. While essentially nobody is in favor of giving the government of Europeia full control of Discord, a thin plurality favor a partnership between the government and admins.

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This will surely be an issue that is debate into the future. ENN's coverage of the Senate and Presidential race will continue into the next month.

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HEM
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Kraketopia
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What I got out of this is that someone needs to convince WL to run again.
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JayDee
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Looks like Aex is going to get Gerald Ford for his US President.
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Grizzli
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Unless WL goes for it. Or if someone completely unexpected...
Interesting info on the discord poll, for someone working on Discord administration btw :D . HEM, thank you for this article.
Edited by Grizzli, Jan 14 2017, 09:27 PM.
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Kraketopia
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Grizzli
Jan 14 2017, 09:27 PM
Unless WL goes for it. Or if someone completely unexpected...
r3n rising from the mists? I'd pay good money to see a r3n ticket.
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Sopo
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Deepest House
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Nice work, HEM.

Put together quickly and concisely.
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HEM:
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This may have just killed off any potential challenger Aex might have had to deal with. If he is challenged however I think we'll see a nasty election if not a close one.
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Brunhilde
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Wasn't there a Brunhilde vs Calvin poll? What happened to those results.

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Mousebumples
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I'm surprised to see more members of CRP responding versus EPP - or at least, those that identified themselves as such. I think (thought?) that EPP has a larger membership base, so I figured those numbers would have been higher, but it might have just been not great timing on when the poll was in the field. Though 35 responses? Wow, that's a big number!

Thanks for the poll, HEM. Not sure how much weight to put by any of the poll numbers as I think I answered "lean" for almost all of them because I need platforms to actually decide anything, personally. :P
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It would also appear that the EPP's membership was under-polled which would (likely) drive Aex's numbers up even more.
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Lethen
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Where did this narrative come from that (1) Aex is going to run uncontested and (2) things will be abysmal and terrible if he doesn't get quality competition?

As one of those older members in the region, I'd like to think I have a pretty good eye for good and bad tickets. Maybe I'm biased as I share the same affliction as Carrot - being privy to a lot of things behind-the-scenes from all sorts of people. In fact, most of Carrot's last three paragraphs speak to exactly what I would have said. Either way, I don't know what the hell Hy is talking about. How about we don't be so salty and negative about someone's Presidency before he's even had a chance to post a platform?

I could definitely understand if Carrot cringed most of that panel discussion while he worked to quickly distance himself from Hy's comments (jumped-to conclusions?) and rather negative attitude.
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Lethen
Jan 15 2017, 03:20 AM
Where did this narrative come from that (1) Aex is going to run uncontested and (2) things will be abysmal and terrible if he doesn't get quality competition?
I don't think they're tied, necessarily, and I wasn't on the panel, but here are my thoughts since I've said similar statements along the lines of both to various people, and in case things have been taken out of context/I wasn't clear, here goes:

re: 1) This is expected thanks to the Europeian Rumor Mill™. My understanding is that Anumia had been considering a run prior to recent events, and while there have been rumors of others standing, I don't know that there's been anything of that sort substantiated.

re: 2) I think all elections are best when there is an actual challenge at hand. It helps us to actually have something to debate and discuss and evaluate, rather than making it a personal, "You-candidate are good/bad." That, for me, is not an Aex-specific thing, as I know I've bitched publicly and privately about others basically running unopposed. While I would "connect the two," for me, it's less about "his term as President will be abysmal and terrible" and more that I think competition and a challenge of ideas is healthy for the region as a whole
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JayDee
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I can't really say I like all these 'I can see a terrible Presidency from a mile away posts.' It's your right to your opinion, but if it's something negative like that, please keep it to yourself and don't drag others down.
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JayDee
Jan 15 2017, 04:06 AM
I can't really say I like all these 'I can see a terrible Presidency from a mile away posts.' It's your right to your opinion, but if it's something negative like that, please keep it to yourself and don't drag others down.
Where are all these posts? I don't see lots of these posts.

And if there were enough people who thought that someone was going to be a bad President then they'd run against that person and win the election! :sleep:
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