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Shoulda, woulda, coulda: the what ifs of 16
Topic Started: Nov 3 2016, 01:59 PM (413 Views)
HEM
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former substitute senator to aexnidaral seymour

Aexnidaral Seymour
Nov 3 2016, 01:43 PM
The race would've been equally close with Sanders. Or Hillary v Any R. Or Sanders v any R.

Our politics is tribal. Most Republicans will vote R until they die. Most Democrats will vote D until they die.

Pretending this would've been a blowout with any other candidate is frankly silly and wrong. It may make for a cute narrative, but it's simply not the truth. Let's save the bedwetting for another day, yeah?
I'm not pretending it would be a blowout, but when you look at polling that pits a third term of Obama vs. Donald Trump you get a decisive 5-6 point victory every time. You can get defensive, but Clinton is a weak candidate which is why we are 5 days out and back on the air in Colorado, Michigan, Wisconsin, when this race should've been sewn up on October 9th.

We are all on the same team until November 8th, but tbqh it's time for the party to clean house, and on November 9th I want the DNC upended.
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Drecq
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EMPEROR OF THAT PLACE OVER THERE, RULER OF THINGS AND PEOPLES, BREEZEBORN, MOTHER OF LIZARDS

Clinton is a somewhat weak candidate. But many of the things that are bad for her as a candidate will be amazing for her as President. Another Candidate might have moved the needle a little, but there is no other person that constitutionally was able to run (excluding Obama) that had even a snowballs chance in hell of coming close to her qualifications for the Office.
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Aexnidaral Seymour
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Somebody's got to keep you entertained.

It's not even remotely comparable. Obama can't run for a third term. That's a rabit hole argument that's disingenuous because you can't say "look at hypothetical polling, you get a better average." -- yeah because they're not on the ballot with ads running against them constantly. Anyone's gonna do better in hypothetical matchest when they're not running.

The circumstances aren't the same. In 12 at this point Obama's lead was under between .5% and 2%. We are on track for an Obama win. Why? Because our coalition of voters doesn't mimic the Republican party. Sanders would be in a similar place. O'Malley. Obama. Hell, maybe the only person who would be in a better place would be a ticket of Michelle Obama/Joe Biden.

The Republican party has white voters in spades. That's why Trump has a ceiling of support. It's enough to make him competitive in a few battlegrounds, but it's also what gives us our edge in diverse battlegrounds.

We would be in this same situation no matter who the candidate was. Russia would still be propping up Trump with white voters, we'd be winning our diverse coalition, and 10% of idiots would pretend they're still undecided.

This election isn't an indictment of a party or a candidate, it's an indictment of our tribal echo chamber politics.

I'm all for DNC reforms. I've been all member if my local and state parties for years trying to move things I'm the right direction. That's where we get our hands dirty and make real, lasting change, not just the DNC.
Edited by Aexnidaral Seymour, Nov 3 2016, 02:13 PM.
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HEM
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former substitute senator to aexnidaral seymour

Drecq
Nov 3 2016, 02:06 PM
Clinton is a somewhat weak candidate. But many of the things that are bad for her as a candidate will be amazing for her as President. Another Candidate might have moved the needle a little, but there is no other person that constitutionally was able to run (excluding Obama) that had even a snowballs chance in hell of coming close to her qualifications for the Office.
Joseph Robinette Biden.
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Aexnidaral Seymour
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Somebody's got to keep you entertained.

HEM
Nov 3 2016, 02:13 PM
Joseph Robinette Biden.
He chose not to run. Hard to say he'd be doing significantly better. He'd still have the same coalition, maybe he'd be doing slightly better with men and worse with women, but overall it'd still be at the same place.
Edited by Aexnidaral Seymour, Nov 3 2016, 02:17 PM.
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former substitute senator to aexnidaral seymour

Aexnidaral Seymour
Nov 3 2016, 02:12 PM
It's not even remotely comparable. Obama can't run for a third term. That's a rabit hole argument that's disingenuous because you can't say "look at hypothetical polling, you get a better average." -- yeah because they're not on the ballot with ads running against them constantly. Anyone's gonna do better in hypothetical matchest when they're not running.

The circumstances aren't the same. In 12 at this point Obama's lead was under between .5% and 2%. We are on track for an Obama win. Why? Because our coalition of voters doesn't mimic the Republican party. Sanders would be in a similar place. O'Malley. Obama. Hell, maybe the only person who would be in a better place would be a ticket of Michelle Obama/Joe Biden.

The Republican party has white voters in spades. That's why Trump has a ceiling of support. It's enough to make him competitive in a few battlegrounds, but it's also what gives us our edge in diverse battlegrounds.

We would be in this same situation no matter who the candidate was. Russia would still be propping up Trump with white voters, we'd be winning our diverse coalition, and 10% of idiots would pretend they're still undecided.

This election isn't an indictment of a party or a candidate, it's an indictment of our tribal echo chamber politics.

I'm all for DNC reforms. I've been all member if my local and state parties for years trying to move things I'm the right direction. That's where we get our hands dirty and make real, lasting change, not just the DNC.
Obama is probably one of the best proxies of an alternative candidate because he has universal recognition, and his baggage is all in the open. Not to mention, he is basically apart of this campaign with daily stops for Clinton. I don't think there is much unknown information that could move the needle much, maybe a point at most. If I were citing polling asking voters about Bernie Sanders vs. Trump I would say that's a bit bogus, because there's a lot of untread turf there. Not with Obama.

Obama, Joe Biden, or (this is less supportable) Bernie Sanders would have the midwest on lock against Donald Trump. Instead, Ohio is absolutely 100% going to go for Trump. Iowa is 100% going to go for Trump. Our coalition of voters is much different than 08 or 12, and it is a weaker coalition imo.

Quote:
 
Russia would still be propping up Trump with white voters


I am just as pissed about Wikileaks and the Russian hacks against the DNC and John Podesta as you. But it wouldn't be a issue if there hadn't been anything to find. Donna Brazile is officially an idiot, the DNC pressed on the scale for Hillary in the primary, and it feeds right into Trump's core argument that the Democratic establishment is rotten. Yes, we both know that Clinton won the primary by a landslide (a small one, but still) where Brazile and Wasserman-Schultz were probably insignificant, but that's not what it looks like.

Hillary had horrible judgment on her email server — and even worse judgement on how to respond to it — and now we are a knife's edge away from electing the most dangerous President in American history because of how this was cocked up.
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former substitute senator to aexnidaral seymour

Aexnidaral Seymour
Nov 3 2016, 02:19 PM
Also, this discussion is supposed to be about the 2016 election. Not the hypothetical of what could've been if we had a time machine and could take out Hillary and replace her with a candidate we like more.

Let's discuss what's happening in the electionary currently.
The thread is entitled "US 2016 Election Discussion"

Everything I've talked about is directly relating to the 2016 United States General Election.
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former substitute senator to aexnidaral seymour

Aexnidaral Seymour
Nov 3 2016, 02:28 PM
Moved miscellaneous discussion. Please respect my wishes in my newspaper.
Got it. No discussion you don't want to see even if it is literally matches the topic of the thread.

Quote:
 
Generic thread for discussion of the 2016 election, especially for questions about/comments on the prognostication maps.



Great newspaper you have here.
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Aexnidaral Seymour
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Somebody's got to keep you entertained.

HEM, don't be an asshole. Take two seconds and look into the rest of the paper you'll see there's a thread I specifically created for discussion of it.

Here, I'll even move it there and bump it for you.
Edited by Aexnidaral Seymour, Nov 3 2016, 02:48 PM.
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HEM
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former substitute senator to aexnidaral seymour

Aexnidaral Seymour
Nov 3 2016, 02:46 PM
HEM, don't be an asshole. Take two seconds and look into the rest of the paper you'll see there's a thread I specifically created for discussion of it.
I'm literally discussing the election. If you wanted the thread to be more specific to only topics you'd prefer to discuss you should've made that more clear in either the title or first post.

Don't worry though, I'm leaving. No more trivial disruptions of people who disagree with you.

EDIT: Moved my last post to new thread.
Edited by HEM, Nov 3 2016, 02:51 PM.
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Punchwood
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She was and is a shit candidate, I like her but she is almost as unelectable as Bernie, I just wish Biden had run but that would have been way too much to ask of him seeing as his son was dying.

As for this current race I'd be saying it's a toss-up. I think Clinton will just edge it due to superior ground-game, very good surrogates and because of the number of Republicans not backing Trump. I don't think she will win Arizona as I once thought she would and I think she's going to loss Iowa and Ohio maybe even Nevada and possibly Florida. NC is the all important state now, if she can win it Trump cannot win however if he wins it he is suddenly back in play. She also has to make sure that her firewall states of Virginia, Colorado, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania blue and then she win narrowly.

Dems did what I fear they did, they took this election as an easy win and now they are paying the price for it. Suddenly 5 days before Election Day they are panicking worrying that Trump could win. Black turnout is down and early voting hasn't been good for Dems so far in most battleground states, it is now back on the rise but most of the Dem votes are won in early voting they would lose badly on Election Day itself they have to get people out now and not be thinking come November 9th "what if I had made those extra 10 calls?"
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Punchwood
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Aex around 90% of my post was on the election, don't get salty over the fact that people don't think Clinton is a good nominee. If anything it shows how bad a nominee Clinton is as you can't even defend her you just have to remove posts that criticise her in the slightest of ways.

What I was saying is that I think Clinton should just protect her firewall states and try to keep Florida blue and flip NC. I don't think she should bother with trying to flip states now after the FBI bombshell. It would seem like it ahs had some impact on the race. Now we get to see each candidates closing arguments, Trump's will most likely be only an outsider can do the job and she is everything that is wrong with Washington. While Clinton's I would have thought would be that Trump does not have the temperament to be President and I expect she and her surrogates will bring up as many Trump scandals as possible to remind voters who Trump really is. It's going to be a brutal 5 days and I'll be honest I really just want it to end now, and I enjoy politics and I don't even live in the US, I feel so sorry for those of you who live in the US!
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Rach
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At Least 5% Sugar

I think we got to recognize that a large part of Clintons weakness comes from the constant attacks on her and her image.
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Rach
Nov 3 2016, 11:51 PM
I think we got to recognize that a large part of Clintons weakness comes from the constant attacks on her and her image.
I think her actions and attitude are the reason why she ends up under constant attack:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_T8tMk-ZOx8
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Jahka
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Hillary Clinton is an incredibly flawed candidate AND she faces enormous sexism and unfair criticism. Both things are true. One does not cancel out the other.
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